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Edit: The "depression" referred to in this post refers to the global economic instability that led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods System. It does not refe
by Spyro7 15y ago
Edit: The "depression" referred to in this post refers to the global economic instability that led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods System. It does not refer to the Great Depression. I was not able to address that due to time constraints. Please see child posts for clarification:
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2670994 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2670994
"Many economists disagree, for example George Robinson..."
I have been studying economics for a while and I have never heard of this George Robinson. I tried to google for some information on him and all that I can come up with is line noise. If George Robinson was an economist of some repute then he should at least have some published research available, but I am unable to find anything.
Side Note: Obviously, there is no formal licensing process, but in order to call themselves an economist, it is generally accepted that someone should have a graduate degree in economics or a related field. If someone is discussing Macroeconomics, then they really should have a graduate degree in order to be taken seriously. Macroeconomics is an incredibly complex subject and a layman's knowledge is not sufficient in order to have a good grasp of it.
Just for the record, it is actually commonly accepted by modern economists that the gold standard was responsible for the severity of the depression, but stimulus was not the reason for this. The real problem with the Bretton Woods System was that it functioned as an implicit dollar peg for the countries that were in it. Other currencies were pegged to the dollar and the dollar was pegged (at constant rate) to Gold.
Thus, other countries in the Bretton Woods System ended up taking on the risk of America's monetary policy, and American monetary policy had to be managed in such a way that it was perhaps not always in America's best interest. This is the principle argument against a modern global gold standard. To properly manage such a standard for the benefits of all participants would require a superhuman amount of even-handedness and situational awareness, and all of this would be for a system that basically approximates the system that we have today (in which countries are, mostly, free to set their own monetary policy to benefit themselves).
Now, for the idea of a gold standard here in America. The principle objection to this is that it would tie America's currency to a commodity. This seems like an obvious observation, but there are some geopolitical implications here that I rarely see mentioned. Let me put it like this: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss"
Yes, a lot of people have disagreements with the Fed. You can voice those disagreements, and we can make alterations to the Fed's structure as needed, but if the dollar was set on a gold standard tomorrow, then America would lose control of its monetary policy. Voicing your disagreement at that point becomes a little bit more complex.
That last line sounds a little bit extreme, but you need to think about it. Constantly, I hear people talk about gold as though making the dollar dependent on it would alleviate all concerns about the monetary supply. People seem to think that we adopt the gold standard, then, poof, suddenly there would be no monetary policy. This is completely untrue.
Like dollars, the amount of gold in the market at any given time is a mutable value. Gold can be added to the market and gold can be taken out of the market. If the dollar depends on gold, then we would still have a federal reserve bank. The only difference is that it would not be based in the U.S. and under American jurisdiction.
Now, here's a question to think about. Who would comprise our new federal reserve board? Let's take a look at the top ten board members[1]:
Rank Country/Region Gold production (kilograms)
1 China 320,000
2 Australia 210,000
3 South Africa 210,000
4 United States 205,000
5 Russia 205,000
6 Peru 180,000
7 Indonesia 140,000
8 Canada 95,000
9 Ghana 90,000
10 Uzbekistan 80,000
Hmmm, looks like a bunch of countries that are unequivocally in favor of Americans' best interests. Of course, these are just the chief board members. There are many others. In fact, any country or organization with cash can weigh in on the market, and with the stakes being so high (the monetary policy of one of the most powerful nations on the face of the earth), you would be naive to think that interested parties would not take the necessary actions.
[1] Taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gold_production http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gold_produ... (which in turn is sourced from the Economist)
Note: Originally, I intended to debunk all of the "points" raised by this George Robinson, but I am not able to due to time constraints. Time constraints also ensure that this is a much more brief post than would be necessary to fully argue my point. However, I hope that I have been able to provide a helpful angle on why economists are leery of a return to the gold standard.
- econgeeker 15y ago"Actually commonly accepted by modern economists" This phrase is the anti-science. No science operates based on "commonly accepted". Consider how absurd it would be for any modern economist to claim that a form of money, which was banned in 1933, was the cause of prolonging the great depression. How could the use of gold as money cause anything when it was banned by executive order, and the citizens were required to turn it in? Are you going to argue there was a massive underground black market. You don't make that argument, and from my studies no such market existed because people feared the repercussions of being caught with this banned substance. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 "The circumstances of the case were that a New York attorney, Frederick Barber Campbell, had on deposit at Chase National over 5,000 troy ounces (160 kg) of gold. When Campbell attempted to withdraw the gold Chase refused and Campbell sued Chase. A federal prosecutor then indicted Campbell on the following day (September 27, 1933) for failing to surrender his gold.[4] Ultimately the prosecution of Campbell failed but the authority of federal government to seize gold was upheld."
- Spyro7 15y agoA great response! Let me see if I can shed some more light on this topic. "This phrase is the anti-science. No science operates based on \"commonly accepted\"." Exactly! And, there is a very good reason for this. Economics is not a science. It is a social science that makes some use of the scientific method. Within this context, meta-analysis becomes extremely important for drawing pertinent conclusions. This is just a side note, because it seems that we have crossed our wires somewhere. "Consider how absurd it would be for any modern economist to claim that a form of money, which was banned in 1933, was the cause of prolonging the great depression." I should have been more clear. I was referring to the global economic instability (generally manifesting itself as a number of depressions across the Bretton Woods countries) that preceded the collapse of the Bretton Woods System. I have to apologize, but when I see "gold standard" I immediately start my Bretton Woods rebuttal. It is a reflex reaction from spending too much time arguing with Austrian economists. Of course, the grandparent post was referring to the Great Depression. Well, all is not lost. Dr. Scott Sumner (my favorite practicing economist) has a nice starter post on the Great Depression: http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=4161 http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=4161