3 ms·

"Natural immunity" has been of little value at the country level. Whenever/wherever people have proclaimed that "natural immunity" is stemming the pandemic (e.g

by roca 6y ago

"Natural immunity" has been of little value at the country level. Whenever/wherever people have proclaimed that "natural immunity" is stemming the pandemic (e.g. Sweden last year, India this year) a new wave has proven them wrong. So the pandemic will end for NZ the same way it will for every other country: when everyone has had a chance to be vaccinated. That should be some time this year for NZ. Some other countries will get there first, but the timing depends entirely on vaccine supply and uptake, and has nothing to do with how far COVID has spread through the population.

rob74 6y ago
> when everyone has had a chance to be vaccinated If that happens before a mutation spreads which renders the vaccines useless. And, seeing the pace at which vaccination is progressing in poorer countries, I'm not really optimistic about that. On the other hand, there is still hope that the vaccine will at least keep you from getting seriously sick if you get infected with a vaccine-resistant strain...
- roca 6y ago
  There is no reason to believe a mutation is going to render major vaccines useless. The real-life results of the mRNA vaccines against the major variants are very encouraging (see e.g. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/pfizer-says-trials-suggest-covid-vaccine-works-against-south-african-n1262710 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/pfizer-says-trials-sugg...). Many of the scary lab results were only testing the virus against antibodies, not the full power of a vaccinated person's immune system.
  - rob74 6y ago
    I'm not saying the vaccines aren't effective against the current variants of concern, but the situation with part of the population vaccinated and mass transmission in the unvaccinated part of the population may favor the emergence of a new vaccine-resistant strain. See also https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/06/global-rollout-of-vaccines-is-no-longer-a-guarantee-of-victory-over-covid-19 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/06/global-rollout...

by roca 6y ago

rob74 6y ago

> when everyone has had a chance to be vaccinated If that happens before a mutation spreads which renders the vaccines useless. And, seeing the pace at which vaccination is progressing in poorer countries, I'm not really optimistic about that. On the other hand, there is still hope that the vaccine will at least keep you from getting seriously sick if you get infected with a vaccine-resistant strain...

roca 6y ago
There is no reason to believe a mutation is going to render major vaccines useless. The real-life results of the mRNA vaccines against the major variants are very encouraging (see e.g. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/pfizer-says-trials-suggest-covid-vaccine-works-against-south-african-n1262710 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/pfizer-says-trials-sugg...). Many of the scary lab results were only testing the virus against antibodies, not the full power of a vaccinated person's immune system.
- rob74 6y ago
  I'm not saying the vaccines aren't effective against the current variants of concern, but the situation with part of the population vaccinated and mass transmission in the unvaccinated part of the population may favor the emergence of a new vaccine-resistant strain. See also https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/06/global-rollout-of-vaccines-is-no-longer-a-guarantee-of-victory-over-covid-19 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/06/global-rollout...