4 ms·

Did anyone call this early on Not in my area. That is, scientists here would beasically say: we don't know yet how well surface transmission works, so better t

by stinos 6y ago

Did anyone call this early on Not in my area. That is, scientists here would beasically say: we don't know yet how well surface transmission works, so better take precautions. Which in hindsight still is the best approach in my opinion. Took a couple of months (IIRC) before it became well-accepted that chances (while existing) were fairly low. Not sure, but 'free and open' debate sounds like you want to have laymen have their say in things like this which is, again in my opinion, a bad idea. Only biologists/chemists/virologists/... have the fundamental knowledge it takes to reason about this without making mistakes. And between them there definitely was a debate, and they came to the same conclusion.

peytn 6y ago
I never said laypeople. All biologists/chemists/virologists came to the same conclusion? How is that possible?
- mlyle 6y ago
  Easy. You end up with accumulating evidence showing that it is difficult to pull off surfaces in normal cases, and from contact tracing with the vast majority of spread explained by droplets. As evidence accumulates, people get less and less worried about fomites. And I'm sure that not all came to the same conclusion. You can probably find some that think 5G is a major contributor. But a broad consensus forms, where people start to think of surface sterilization as somewhere between "not important at all" or "only mildly important" as a measure to prevent COVID spread. But the precautionary principle means, until the evidence is in--- maybe using protective measures that are effective against other viruses is a sane thing to do until we know more.
- stinos 6y ago
  I never said laypeople No, but you also didn't specify the people taking part in the debate. So I just tried to interpret it and suggested 2 possibilities. All biologists/chemists/virologists came to the same conclusion? How is that possible? Because it makes most sense. Note that the conclusion was not "the virus spreads by surface all the time". It was: "we don't know for sure (which was completely correct at the time), so better safe than sorry".
  - peytn 6y ago
    It sounds like you’re assuming I’d want unqualified people to comment freely in an open debate, and also assuming that every biologist/chemist/virologist came to the same conclusion. Those two assumptions don’t make sense to me, sorry. I wanted to have heard from the biologists/chemists/virologists who had it right from the start. I don’t recall hearing all sides of the issue. Somebody out there surely saw this coming.
    - stinos 6y ago
      It sounds like you’re assuming I’d want unqualified people to comment freely in an open debate Actually I am not assuming anything. I clearly said I wasn't sure, which leaves the possibilities open. assuming that every biologist/chemist/virologist came to the same conclusion Not really, because I don't know every single scientist. I am still talking about the ones in my area. A couple of which I've talked to and those all agreed. And again: the conclusion at the start was not "there is high risk", it was "we do not know how high the risk is". The default mode of scientists is "we do not know" so I hope you see it's pretty easy for a group of scientists to all agree on that. Much, much easier than agreeing on something else because that requires thorough research. But basically you are right on this one: I obvisouly do not have hard evidence all possible scientists agreed they didn't know the actual risks for surface transmission, I just assume they all admit that. I don’t recall hearing all sides of the issue. There are many factors which influence that of course. Media in general can be problematic passing through everything. Somebody out there surely saw this coming Of course, but that still doesn't mean those people wouldn't agree with "we do not know for sure".
Gibbon1 6y ago
I remember trying sort things out early on. Unlike most people I used to work in the contract sterilization industry. Need 100 pallets of catheters sterilized a week? No problem we got gas chambers the size of bus. So I know a little little bit about killing bugs. All that really bought me was seeing the 'debate' was between people that knew far less than the little I knew. Worse what most of what they thought they knew was wrong. The big mistake was assuming that this new virus is just like this other virus they were more familiar with. Lay people and a lot of doctors used influenza as a model. Wrong. People who knew better thought the virus would behave like a not as bad SARS-Covid1 or MERS. Also wrong[1]. My conclusion a year ago was the best strategy was to take all the precautions until further notice. I thought of the doctors quip that the problem with medicine is half the treatments we give patients doesn't work. The real problem is we don't know which half. Taking all reasonable precautions then is always the correct answer. [1] Public heath officials in the west[2] assumed that SARS-Covid2 only spread between symptomatic people like MERS and SARS-Covid1 does. That bit them on the ass but hard. [2] Public health officials in China highly suspected asymptomatic transmission early on. But western officials categorically dismissed Chinese researchers opinions. (Big mistake #2)
- _Microft 6y ago
  Asymptomatic transmission was indeed suspected but a german doctor actually discovered a case and published the first paper about it. A chinese business woman with no symptoms had infected co-workers while visiting the company's headquarters in Bavaria. She developed the disease only after returning to China (but had reported jet-lag which might have covered up some early symptoms). Paper: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 Story: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-...

by stinos 6y ago

peytn 6y ago

I never said laypeople. All biologists/chemists/virologists came to the same conclusion? How is that possible?

mlyle 6y ago
Easy. You end up with accumulating evidence showing that it is difficult to pull off surfaces in normal cases, and from contact tracing with the vast majority of spread explained by droplets. As evidence accumulates, people get less and less worried about fomites. And I'm sure that not all came to the same conclusion. You can probably find some that think 5G is a major contributor. But a broad consensus forms, where people start to think of surface sterilization as somewhere between "not important at all" or "only mildly important" as a measure to prevent COVID spread. But the precautionary principle means, until the evidence is in--- maybe using protective measures that are effective against other viruses is a sane thing to do until we know more.
stinos 6y ago
I never said laypeople No, but you also didn't specify the people taking part in the debate. So I just tried to interpret it and suggested 2 possibilities. All biologists/chemists/virologists came to the same conclusion? How is that possible? Because it makes most sense. Note that the conclusion was not "the virus spreads by surface all the time". It was: "we don't know for sure (which was completely correct at the time), so better safe than sorry".
- peytn 6y ago
  It sounds like you’re assuming I’d want unqualified people to comment freely in an open debate, and also assuming that every biologist/chemist/virologist came to the same conclusion. Those two assumptions don’t make sense to me, sorry. I wanted to have heard from the biologists/chemists/virologists who had it right from the start. I don’t recall hearing all sides of the issue. Somebody out there surely saw this coming.
  - stinos 6y ago
    It sounds like you’re assuming I’d want unqualified people to comment freely in an open debate Actually I am not assuming anything. I clearly said I wasn't sure, which leaves the possibilities open. assuming that every biologist/chemist/virologist came to the same conclusion Not really, because I don't know every single scientist. I am still talking about the ones in my area. A couple of which I've talked to and those all agreed. And again: the conclusion at the start was not "there is high risk", it was "we do not know how high the risk is". The default mode of scientists is "we do not know" so I hope you see it's pretty easy for a group of scientists to all agree on that. Much, much easier than agreeing on something else because that requires thorough research. But basically you are right on this one: I obvisouly do not have hard evidence all possible scientists agreed they didn't know the actual risks for surface transmission, I just assume they all admit that. I don’t recall hearing all sides of the issue. There are many factors which influence that of course. Media in general can be problematic passing through everything. Somebody out there surely saw this coming Of course, but that still doesn't mean those people wouldn't agree with "we do not know for sure".

Gibbon1 6y ago

I remember trying sort things out early on. Unlike most people I used to work in the contract sterilization industry. Need 100 pallets of catheters sterilized a week? No problem we got gas chambers the size of bus. So I know a little little bit about killing bugs. All that really bought me was seeing the 'debate' was between people that knew far less than the little I knew. Worse what most of what they thought they knew was wrong. The big mistake was assuming that this new virus is just like this other virus they were more familiar with. Lay people and a lot of doctors used influenza as a model. Wrong. People who knew better thought the virus would behave like a not as bad SARS-Covid1 or MERS. Also wrong[1]. My conclusion a year ago was the best strategy was to take all the precautions until further notice. I thought of the doctors quip that the problem with medicine is half the treatments we give patients doesn't work. The real problem is we don't know which half. Taking all reasonable precautions then is always the correct answer. [1] Public heath officials in the west[2] assumed that SARS-Covid2 only spread between symptomatic people like MERS and SARS-Covid1 does. That bit them on the ass but hard. [2] Public health officials in China highly suspected asymptomatic transmission early on. But western officials categorically dismissed Chinese researchers opinions. (Big mistake #2)

_Microft 6y ago
Asymptomatic transmission was indeed suspected but a german doctor actually discovered a case and published the first paper about it. A chinese business woman with no symptoms had infected co-workers while visiting the company's headquarters in Bavaria. She developed the disease only after returning to China (but had reported jet-lag which might have covered up some early symptoms). Paper: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 Story: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-...