5 ms·
Article says: "Many economists put at least part of the blame for the severity of the Depression on the strictures of the gold standard, as countries clung to
by fexl 15y ago
Article says: "Many economists put at least part of the blame for the severity of the Depression on the strictures of the gold standard, as countries clung to gold and put off stimulus."
Many economists disagree, for example George Robinson who wrote "Monetary Mischief" in 1935. I'll summarize his arguments.
First: the gold standard was not overly restrictive. People routinely did business in gold contracts, and there was plenty of liquidity. It is false to think that you must have "enough" money to equal the total amount of economic activity in any given group of people. Money is traded at the margin, e.g. if I pay you a dollar, and you pay someone else that dollar, we just did two dollars worth of business with only one dollar.
Second: "Stimulus" is what caused the problem in the first place. The Fed's policies enabled the monetization of the WWI Liberty bonds, and the monetization of common stocks, which led to rampant speculation and malinvestment. When the policies were finally removed, and they had to be removed eventually, the economy shriveled and suffered from its malinvestment (in stocks such as GE and Consolidated Gas, in Florida real estate, etc.) More stimulus is not the answer to a problem caused by too much stimulus. That's like prescribing a heroin injection as a treatment for heroin withdrawal. It "works" in a sense, but postpones solving the actual problem.
Third: the U.S. economy suffered a monumental crash in 1921, but that was not followed by a prolonged depression. That's because the people were allowed to suffer and sort out the consequences of their previous malinvestement and put their future affairs on a more solid footing, without relying on that next heroin injection so to speak.
A quote from that 1935 book:
"Our present difficulties sure did not arise from any scarcity or failure of gold, but, to the extent that they had monetary origin, sprang from monetizing property through the banking process at a very high price level, which had later to be demonetized at a much lower price level. We tried to make gold too efficient. In this we undertook a form of managed currency. The Federal Reserve system had an opportunity to restrict the money supply, but did not understand the matter, and failed completely."
Another interesting quote:
"Now of course it was all done in the name of necessity, as such things usually are. In his radio address on the subject the President said that there was not enough gold in the world to satisfy all the contracts made in its name, quite as if gold were only a medium of exchange and payment, and our only medium at that, and not at all our standard or measure of value."
- michael_dorfman 15y agoIt's not a big surprise that you were able to find one economist from 1935 who disagreed. It would have been more surprising if you hadn't been able to. In any event, this is not a situation where a contemporary analysis necessarily has a closer view of the situation; far from it, as someone in 1935 didn't see what the next 75 years brought. So: I didn't downvote, but I remain unimpressed with George Robinson's contemporary analysis, as it consists simply of two unsupported assertions.
- fexl 15y agoHe writes a whole book to support those assertions, but I only had time to hit the high points here. I have no interest in getting all religious or dogmatic about gold, silver, bitcoin, US dollars, Euros, or any other form of money. My real point is: let individuals decide what forms of money they wish to use, without harassment. Clearly the practice at the time of banks lending money to buy stocks and Florida real estate, using stocks as collateral for those loans, was insane and unsustainable. In effect, common stocks were indeed monetized, and this led to an enormous boom in the money supply which enabled and encouraged the mis-allocation of capital. When that stops, people suffer, no doubt about it. It was just sick what certain people did back then to keep prices propped up artificially high. They would spy on farmers to make sure they didn't produce too much, and if they did, they'd go in and burn crops and slaughter hogs. This while people were going hungry. I had a neighbor who, as a 14 year old boy, was hired to drive around the countryside spying on farmers. A dry cleaner who charged too little for his services was imprisoned. The authoritarians fought deflation tooth and nail, and years of misery was the result.
- yaakov34 15y agoIn 1935, a lot of very intelligent people thought that the Soviet model was the answer (I don't mean George Robinson in particular). It turned out that those people lacked some information and perspective, and were probably guilty of wishful thinking. So why should the 1935 date of this book impress us, in itself? P.S. The story of Westerners who relocated to the Soviet Union in the 1930s is fascinating. And very sad, for the most part. There were tens of thousands of such people. I am sure Google will find references.