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The thing I don't like about Kurzweil's singularity prediction is it kind of sounds like predictions in the 1960's that we'd all be living in space by now. Yet
by dstein 15y ago
The thing I don't like about Kurzweil's singularity prediction is it kind of sounds like predictions in the 1960's that we'd all be living in space by now. Yet, here we are 50 years later still burning gas in our cars but we have phenominal GPS technology in our phones. People (even scientists) tend to overestimate the "deepness" of technological advancement and underestimate the "wideness". I predict that by the time a singularity occurs that it'll be much farther out in time and may not even be a distinguishable event.
- GrangalanJr 15y ago"People (even scientists) tend to overestimate the "deepness" of technological advancement and underestimate the "wideness"." Very interesting thought, that our predictions have a bias toward "vertical" advancement -- vast improvements in areas addressed by tech that we already have -- rather than the "horizontal" creation and filling of new niches in demand.
- gaius 15y agoA great example of this is Star Trek. They can travel at warp speed, but they can't use a communicator to send a video signal back to the ship, the captain has to beam down to see it himself...
- ceejayoz 15y agoIn fairness, that's more of an "interesting TV" issue than a "failure of imagination" issue. A show about a bunch of people who sit around in a room teleoperating a robot probably would be a lot less interesting.
- dhughes 15y agoAnd he seems to believe it will or has to occur during his lifetime not five or 500 years from now. To me that self-centered arrogance is a sure sign someone is a nut.