I think the issue is that he has had enough successes that people are assuming his current ideas will also, necessarily, be successes. And his self-confidence c

I think the issue is that he has had enough successes that people are assuming his current ideas will also, necessarily, be successes. And his self-confidence conveys that. The thing people need to realize is that people can start hitting misses at any time. Elon Musk is perhaps a con man (in the fully expounded sense of the term "confidence man"), but particularly one who believes his own bull.