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I recommend the Meyerowitz-Katz and Merone survey of IFR [1] over Ioannidis. The tl;dr is an IFR estimate 0.68%. Consensus in the epidemiology community is that
by raphlinus 6y ago
I recommend the Meyerowitz-Katz and Merone survey of IFR [1] over Ioannidis. The tl;dr is an IFR estimate 0.68%. Consensus in the epidemiology community is that Ioannidis has become a politicized hack, consistently pushing lowball estimates.
Of course, your argument is still valid even with the lower estimate, I just think it becomes more complicated. Unfortunately, this case is quite a bit more complicated because COVID fatalities are heavily weighted to older ages, while this purported VIPIT is appearing largely in younger, otherwise healthy people.
[1]: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v...
[2]: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/what-the-heck-happened-to-john-ioannidis/ https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/what-the-heck-happened-to-j...
- Gibbon1 6y ago> The tl;dr is an IFR estimate 0.68% What's funny, not amusing is the Chinese said they thought the IFR was about 0.7% back in Feb 2020. Lots of people decided to not believe that for reasons. But here we are. And yet people still refuse. For 'reasons'
- daanlo 6y agoThank you. Very interesting read. I have never understood some of the low IFR estimates. If you look e.g. at numbers for New York State. They have had 50.905 covid related deaths (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) and roughly 20.000.000 inhabitants. That sets a pretty clear lower boundary on IFR of 0.0025. And clearly not everyone in New York State has had covid.
- toolz 6y agopicking one of the hardest hit areas in the world doesn't set a lower boundary on IFR.