2 ms·
I guess I don’t see what is supposed to drive the S curve in biotechnology over the next 60 years. Advanced information technology is a necessary but not a suff
by hyko 6y ago
I guess I don’t see what is supposed to drive the S curve in biotechnology over the next 60 years. Advanced information technology is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for biotech mastery, and the other conditions are just not in place.
- burlesona 6y agoJust to name one thing, I think CRISPR is likely to be seen as fundamental a technological building block as the transistor.
- hyko 6y agoYeah CRISPR-Cas9 is an incredible breakthrough. I’m just not sure the regulatory environment is geared up for exponential growth, and my assertion is that reverse engineering biology will be a much steeper climb than the history of transistors or rocketry. I guess my question to you would be, if we were to take a bet on it, what metrics would we use to know who was right? Biotech patents? In the case of rockets and chips we had thrust and transistor density respectively. I’m not sure how easy it would be to quantify progress, though I have a sense of what some of the tangible applications will be when they show up. Maybe mortality rate would be a good measure? Or human population size (a proxy for mortality + food production)?