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I doubt that the contract between the company operating the ship and the canal authority includes the settlement of disputes in Egyptian court. If it goes this

I doubt that the contract between the company operating the ship and the canal authority includes the settlement of disputes in Egyptian court. If it goes this way, the company may seek for compensation abroad - this will damage the reputation of Egypt and result in a very long and difficult litigations everywhere around the world. Besides that, new risks associated to this route may push shippers to look more closely to an alternative route. Northern route is much shorter, does not have vessel size limits and it becomes more easier to navigate with global warming. It's not hard to imagine ice class nuclear merchant ships carrying 30-40k TEU there in 10 years.

gpm 6y ago
> nuclear merchant ships [...] in 10 years. This is very hard for me to imagine.
- nbdfml354 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_icebreaker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_icebreaker Imagine one of these with stuff on it.
  - WJW 6y ago
    I imagine that it's not so much the "nuclear ship" part as much as it is the "nuclear merchant ship" part. Of course you can build big nuclear-powered vessels. But how many governments are willing to part with enough uranium to power such a vessel? Civilian use of nuclear material is extremely restricted and enforcement of maritime law is already something of a problem area due to how international the whole thing is.
    - xyzzy21 6y ago
      The United States did in 1959: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NS_Savannah https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NS_Savannah
    - ivan_gammel 6y ago
      Well, Russia already operates such fleet and generally considers it as the only feasible way to go with Northern route - to break ice you need a lot of power. I'm pretty sure China won't see a problem with admitting such vessels in their ports or even operating some on their own. With Northern route it's the only way to go in next 50 years, while Arctic is still fully freezing.
- ivan_gammel 6y ago
  They already exist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevmorput https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevmorput The only question is if it is economically viable at current level of technology.
Jeff_Brown 6y ago
I'm not convinced Egypt's reputation matters much when a company is calculating whether to go through the Suez Canal vs. around South Africa? As long as the Suez is substantially cheaper, the only effect of this kind of tail risk will be in the cost of insurance.

gpm 6y ago

> nuclear merchant ships [...] in 10 years. This is very hard for me to imagine.

nbdfml354 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_icebreaker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_icebreaker Imagine one of these with stuff on it.
- WJW 6y ago
  I imagine that it's not so much the "nuclear ship" part as much as it is the "nuclear merchant ship" part. Of course you can build big nuclear-powered vessels. But how many governments are willing to part with enough uranium to power such a vessel? Civilian use of nuclear material is extremely restricted and enforcement of maritime law is already something of a problem area due to how international the whole thing is.
  - xyzzy21 6y ago
    The United States did in 1959: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NS_Savannah https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NS_Savannah
  - ivan_gammel 6y ago
    Well, Russia already operates such fleet and generally considers it as the only feasible way to go with Northern route - to break ice you need a lot of power. I'm pretty sure China won't see a problem with admitting such vessels in their ports or even operating some on their own. With Northern route it's the only way to go in next 50 years, while Arctic is still fully freezing.
ivan_gammel 6y ago
They already exist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevmorput https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevmorput The only question is if it is economically viable at current level of technology.

Jeff_Brown 6y ago

I'm not convinced Egypt's reputation matters much when a company is calculating whether to go through the Suez Canal vs. around South Africa? As long as the Suez is substantially cheaper, the only effect of this kind of tail risk will be in the cost of insurance.