2 ms·
> Longbets 20 years $5000 that we won't have driverless cars on real roads and infra carrying 30% or more of human rider miles. That's a completely safe bet.
by mlyle 6y ago
> Longbets 20 years $5000 that we won't have driverless cars on real roads and infra carrying 30% or more of human rider miles.
That's a completely safe bet. US fleet turnover is >15 years. If it were 100% capable and relatively cheap today, you'd barely hit that milestone.
> Waymo is going to get canned or pivot to a new concept, like bus rapid transit on closed loop systems.
I don't think so.
- echelon 6y ago> That's a completely safe bet. US fleet turnover is >15 years. If it were 100% capable and relatively cheap today, you'd barely hit that milestone. If driverless cars are as revolutionary as proponents claim, fleet turnover would happen much faster.