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Tesla is L2 because it's 99.5% safe and requires supervision for the last 0.5%. People are bad at that kind of supervisory task-- they see it work a couple of

by mlyle 6y ago

Tesla is L2 because it's 99.5% safe and requires supervision for the last 0.5%. People are bad at that kind of supervisory task-- they see it work a couple of times and stop paying attention. And it doesn't get to me taking a nap in the car and ending up at Disneyland-- at best it makes a long drive slightly less fatiguing.

cbozeman 6y ago
A long drive slightly less fatiguing is better than a short drive in a limited area of operation. This, I think, is why Tesla will eventually succeed. Every Tesla sold is gathering data about its environment and phoning home - we already know that. So whether you have Autopilot or not, Tesla gets data for its Full Self-Driving Capability; when you swerve to avoid a possum at 12:47 a.m. because you've been working all day and night and into the morning and you really need some Whataburger, or, if you must... In-N-Out..., some engineer somewhere at Tesla can look at that event, see why you swerved out of lane, recognize it was a possum, and then jot that down into his or her notebook... twwooo... forrrtty-seeeven... ayyy emmm... driver swwwerved... to avoid... possum..., integrate possum-avoidance behavior into Autopilot for next release...
- mlyle 6y ago
  That would be valid if Tesla is really collecting all of that data. But the people who have done analysis of what the cars sends back say that what is actually sent is very limited statistics on times, locations, and general characteristics of disengagements (speed, direction, list of detected targets, etc). This is doubtlessly useful but it's not something you can just drop into training a neural network or even be sure exactly what the issue was. They can write query strings for very specific situations they're interested in, too, and receive video frames. On the other hand, Waymo is gathering vision data on every drive, and ground truth LIDAR data.
- lupire 6y ago
  If it were that easy then Tesla could have just bought dash cam video from drivers of all cars, and have far more data.
ajross 6y ago
> at best it makes a long drive slightly less fatiguing ...which sounds like kind of a killer feature to me? (Like, it really is -- I may be within days of pulling the trigger on a Model Y). Can you walk back and explain how making long drives more fun is somehow a disappointment?
- mlyle 6y ago
  It's a win. But-- if it's just driving freeway miles and lanekeeping and doing basic collision avoidance-- there's a lot of cars doing that and Tesla is in first place but not strongly differentiated from GM, etc. Other cars can provide you this "less fatiguing road trip" experience. If you want it to actually drive and be able to remove your attention, well, something like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uClWlVCwHsI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uClWlVCwHsI makes the present limits rather clear.
  - tibbydudeza 6y ago
    Pretty crappy results even for a beta - left turn into oncoming traffic in a clear highway seems like a standard test case.

by mlyle 6y ago

cbozeman 6y ago

A long drive slightly less fatiguing is better than a short drive in a limited area of operation. This, I think, is why Tesla will eventually succeed. Every Tesla sold is gathering data about its environment and phoning home - we already know that. So whether you have Autopilot or not, Tesla gets data for its Full Self-Driving Capability; when you swerve to avoid a possum at 12:47 a.m. because you've been working all day and night and into the morning and you really need some Whataburger, or, if you must... In-N-Out..., some engineer somewhere at Tesla can look at that event, see why you swerved out of lane, recognize it was a possum, and then jot that down into his or her notebook... twwooo... forrrtty-seeeven... ayyy emmm... driver swwwerved... to avoid... possum..., integrate possum-avoidance behavior into Autopilot for next release...

mlyle 6y ago
That would be valid if Tesla is really collecting all of that data. But the people who have done analysis of what the cars sends back say that what is actually sent is very limited statistics on times, locations, and general characteristics of disengagements (speed, direction, list of detected targets, etc). This is doubtlessly useful but it's not something you can just drop into training a neural network or even be sure exactly what the issue was. They can write query strings for very specific situations they're interested in, too, and receive video frames. On the other hand, Waymo is gathering vision data on every drive, and ground truth LIDAR data.
lupire 6y ago
If it were that easy then Tesla could have just bought dash cam video from drivers of all cars, and have far more data.

ajross 6y ago

> at best it makes a long drive slightly less fatiguing ...which sounds like kind of a killer feature to me? (Like, it really is -- I may be within days of pulling the trigger on a Model Y). Can you walk back and explain how making long drives more fun is somehow a disappointment?

mlyle 6y ago
It's a win. But-- if it's just driving freeway miles and lanekeeping and doing basic collision avoidance-- there's a lot of cars doing that and Tesla is in first place but not strongly differentiated from GM, etc. Other cars can provide you this "less fatiguing road trip" experience. If you want it to actually drive and be able to remove your attention, well, something like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uClWlVCwHsI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uClWlVCwHsI makes the present limits rather clear.
- tibbydudeza 6y ago
  Pretty crappy results even for a beta - left turn into oncoming traffic in a clear highway seems like a standard test case.