4 ms·

I’ve seen this in action already and it works quite well. A company called Optimus Ride is shuttling people between an apartment building and a local dc metro s

by mcot2 6y ago

I’ve seen this in action already and it works quite well. A company called Optimus Ride is shuttling people between an apartment building and a local dc metro station on a mostly private road. I am surprised Waymo did not try to target this market first as its a lot lower risk and easier to pull off.

ghughes 6y ago
It’s not a google scale market
marcinzm 6y ago
>I am surprised Waymo did not try to target this market first as its a lot lower risk and easier to pull off. Probably the same reason Google kills projects if they don't become a giant market leading success quickly. At Google/Alphabet's current scale a moderate win is not worth pursuing.
- ghaff 6y ago
  I wouldn't bet on it but I also wouldn't be completely shocked in Alphabet ends up pulling the plug. Can they create a product they can sell that provides full autonomy under a useful subset of conditions within the next decade? If their honest answer is no then I have to think people within Alphabet are going to start asking hard questions.
ghaff 6y ago
Geofenced limited access highways also seems like a fairly promising area. It's amazing how many people bought into the hype that there would be widespread self-driving taxi services by the end of last decade and that kids growing up today would never need to learn to drive. Even a relative skeptic like Rodney Brooks is looking to be overly optimistic at this point. https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/ https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/
aphextron 6y ago
>I’ve seen this in action already and it works quite well. A company called Optimus Ride is shuttling people between an apartment building and a local dc metro station on a mostly private road. The real question here though is "Is this safer and cheaper than just paying a bus driver $12/hr?". My suspicion is no. And when you don't have the scale effects of millions of applications, it simply doesn't make sense.
- mcot2 6y ago
  Why wouldn’t it be cheaper than a bus with a human driver?
  - ac29 6y ago
    Because the hardware and software needed to run that system reliably costs more than hiring a bus driver or two. The autonomous system might, in theory, eventually be cheaper to operate, but it isnt now.

by mcot2 6y ago

ghughes 6y ago

It’s not a google scale market

marcinzm 6y ago

>I am surprised Waymo did not try to target this market first as its a lot lower risk and easier to pull off. Probably the same reason Google kills projects if they don't become a giant market leading success quickly. At Google/Alphabet's current scale a moderate win is not worth pursuing.

ghaff 6y ago
I wouldn't bet on it but I also wouldn't be completely shocked in Alphabet ends up pulling the plug. Can they create a product they can sell that provides full autonomy under a useful subset of conditions within the next decade? If their honest answer is no then I have to think people within Alphabet are going to start asking hard questions.

ghaff 6y ago

Geofenced limited access highways also seems like a fairly promising area. It's amazing how many people bought into the hype that there would be widespread self-driving taxi services by the end of last decade and that kids growing up today would never need to learn to drive. Even a relative skeptic like Rodney Brooks is looking to be overly optimistic at this point. https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/ https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/

aphextron 6y ago

>I’ve seen this in action already and it works quite well. A company called Optimus Ride is shuttling people between an apartment building and a local dc metro station on a mostly private road. The real question here though is "Is this safer and cheaper than just paying a bus driver $12/hr?". My suspicion is no. And when you don't have the scale effects of millions of applications, it simply doesn't make sense.

mcot2 6y ago
Why wouldn’t it be cheaper than a bus with a human driver?
- ac29 6y ago
  Because the hardware and software needed to run that system reliably costs more than hiring a bus driver or two. The autonomous system might, in theory, eventually be cheaper to operate, but it isnt now.