5 ms·

Waymo is and will always be vaporware. The "future" of automonous travel is going to be large geofenced shuttles with no other cars on the road (think large co

by nojito 6y ago

Waymo is and will always be vaporware. The "future" of automonous travel is going to be large geofenced shuttles with no other cars on the road (think large college campuses, corporate campuses, amusement parks, etc.)

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
mcot2 6y ago
I’ve seen this in action already and it works quite well. A company called Optimus Ride is shuttling people between an apartment building and a local dc metro station on a mostly private road. I am surprised Waymo did not try to target this market first as its a lot lower risk and easier to pull off.
- ghughes 6y ago
  It’s not a google scale market
- marcinzm 6y ago
  >I am surprised Waymo did not try to target this market first as its a lot lower risk and easier to pull off. Probably the same reason Google kills projects if they don't become a giant market leading success quickly. At Google/Alphabet's current scale a moderate win is not worth pursuing.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    I wouldn't bet on it but I also wouldn't be completely shocked in Alphabet ends up pulling the plug. Can they create a product they can sell that provides full autonomy under a useful subset of conditions within the next decade? If their honest answer is no then I have to think people within Alphabet are going to start asking hard questions.
- ghaff 6y ago
  Geofenced limited access highways also seems like a fairly promising area. It's amazing how many people bought into the hype that there would be widespread self-driving taxi services by the end of last decade and that kids growing up today would never need to learn to drive. Even a relative skeptic like Rodney Brooks is looking to be overly optimistic at this point. https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/ https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/
- aphextron 6y ago
  >I’ve seen this in action already and it works quite well. A company called Optimus Ride is shuttling people between an apartment building and a local dc metro station on a mostly private road. The real question here though is "Is this safer and cheaper than just paying a bus driver $12/hr?". My suspicion is no. And when you don't have the scale effects of millions of applications, it simply doesn't make sense.
  - mcot2 6y ago
    Why wouldn’t it be cheaper than a bus with a human driver?
    - ac29 6y ago
      Because the hardware and software needed to run that system reliably costs more than hiring a bus driver or two. The autonomous system might, in theory, eventually be cheaper to operate, but it isnt now.
hogFeast 6y ago
Tesla's lawyers sweating bullets. The narrative around FSD has changed very quickly this year. By the end of the year, Tesla is going to be neck deep in lawsuits.
jvolkman 6y ago
We must have different definitions of vaporware. https://youtu.be/p5CXcJD3mcU https://youtu.be/p5CXcJD3mcU
- zozin 6y ago
  Bird poop on sensors? Dirt? Grime? Rain? Snow? How sensitive are these sensors? Half the rental cars I get have broken blindspot or rearview camera sensors. How often will L3-L5 sensors need to be maintained/replaced in order for software to work? Poorly marked road? Messed up road signs? Erratic drivers? Construction cones? Construction workers? Potholes? Road vibration? Road kill? Just because it can navigate a sunny California parking lot doesn't mean any of these systems are ready for primetime. The most common job in most American states is truck driver. If there's basically 0% market penetration by L3-L5 systems in the space as of 2021, I'm not holding out any hope that L3-L5 systems will be commonplace in people's garages in the next 15-20 years.
  - jvolkman 6y ago
    They've been working on this for a while, you know. Bird poop: https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8529507/_999x_999.gif https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8529507/_9... Construction: https://youtu.be/s1mAWg23phU?t=484 https://youtu.be/s1mAWg23phU?t=484 Erratic, unexpected crap: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weXDUc5Osto https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weXDUc5Osto
alfanick 6y ago
You mean trains, we've got them here in Europe
- sofixa 6y ago
  Plenty of metro and light metro systems use automatic operations to boot. Even high speed rail is highly automated ( due to the fact that there's little a human can do better when at 320km/h).
lupire 6y ago
So, they future is what Waymo is doing now? That's not vaporware.
xenihn 6y ago
There's also the option of only allowing automated cars on the road. This obviously won't happen on a national level in any country any time soon, but I could see it being on a city-by-city basis. The biggest issue with autonomous travel is that it needs a 0% failure rate. Anything worse than that is not good enough, even if it's safer than non-autonomous driving by an order of magnitude.

by nojito 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

mcot2 6y ago

I’ve seen this in action already and it works quite well. A company called Optimus Ride is shuttling people between an apartment building and a local dc metro station on a mostly private road. I am surprised Waymo did not try to target this market first as its a lot lower risk and easier to pull off.

ghughes 6y ago
It’s not a google scale market
marcinzm 6y ago
>I am surprised Waymo did not try to target this market first as its a lot lower risk and easier to pull off. Probably the same reason Google kills projects if they don't become a giant market leading success quickly. At Google/Alphabet's current scale a moderate win is not worth pursuing.
- ghaff 6y ago
  I wouldn't bet on it but I also wouldn't be completely shocked in Alphabet ends up pulling the plug. Can they create a product they can sell that provides full autonomy under a useful subset of conditions within the next decade? If their honest answer is no then I have to think people within Alphabet are going to start asking hard questions.
ghaff 6y ago
Geofenced limited access highways also seems like a fairly promising area. It's amazing how many people bought into the hype that there would be widespread self-driving taxi services by the end of last decade and that kids growing up today would never need to learn to drive. Even a relative skeptic like Rodney Brooks is looking to be overly optimistic at this point. https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/ https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/
aphextron 6y ago
>I’ve seen this in action already and it works quite well. A company called Optimus Ride is shuttling people between an apartment building and a local dc metro station on a mostly private road. The real question here though is "Is this safer and cheaper than just paying a bus driver $12/hr?". My suspicion is no. And when you don't have the scale effects of millions of applications, it simply doesn't make sense.
- mcot2 6y ago
  Why wouldn’t it be cheaper than a bus with a human driver?
  - ac29 6y ago
    Because the hardware and software needed to run that system reliably costs more than hiring a bus driver or two. The autonomous system might, in theory, eventually be cheaper to operate, but it isnt now.

hogFeast 6y ago

Tesla's lawyers sweating bullets. The narrative around FSD has changed very quickly this year. By the end of the year, Tesla is going to be neck deep in lawsuits.

jvolkman 6y ago

We must have different definitions of vaporware. https://youtu.be/p5CXcJD3mcU https://youtu.be/p5CXcJD3mcU

zozin 6y ago
Bird poop on sensors? Dirt? Grime? Rain? Snow? How sensitive are these sensors? Half the rental cars I get have broken blindspot or rearview camera sensors. How often will L3-L5 sensors need to be maintained/replaced in order for software to work? Poorly marked road? Messed up road signs? Erratic drivers? Construction cones? Construction workers? Potholes? Road vibration? Road kill? Just because it can navigate a sunny California parking lot doesn't mean any of these systems are ready for primetime. The most common job in most American states is truck driver. If there's basically 0% market penetration by L3-L5 systems in the space as of 2021, I'm not holding out any hope that L3-L5 systems will be commonplace in people's garages in the next 15-20 years.
- jvolkman 6y ago
  They've been working on this for a while, you know. Bird poop: https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8529507/_999x_999.gif https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8529507/_9... Construction: https://youtu.be/s1mAWg23phU?t=484 https://youtu.be/s1mAWg23phU?t=484 Erratic, unexpected crap: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weXDUc5Osto https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weXDUc5Osto

alfanick 6y ago

You mean trains, we've got them here in Europe

sofixa 6y ago
Plenty of metro and light metro systems use automatic operations to boot. Even high speed rail is highly automated ( due to the fact that there's little a human can do better when at 320km/h).

lupire 6y ago

So, they future is what Waymo is doing now? That's not vaporware.

xenihn 6y ago

There's also the option of only allowing automated cars on the road. This obviously won't happen on a national level in any country any time soon, but I could see it being on a city-by-city basis. The biggest issue with autonomous travel is that it needs a 0% failure rate. Anything worse than that is not good enough, even if it's safer than non-autonomous driving by an order of magnitude.