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I’d be curious to hear the full quote and context on the 600 number. It sounds like that is talking about operational taxis, while the 82k number is all vehicle

by soared 6y ago

I’d be curious to hear the full quote and context on the 600 number. It sounds like that is talking about operational taxis, while the 82k number is all vehicles. It seems like that >90% of waymo’s vehicles would not be on the roads but in testing/design/etc. the articles point still stands, but I don’t think the number comparison seems totally fair.

Espressosaurus 6y ago
You don't build 82K for prototypes. You build hundreds to a few thousand for prototypes as you're scaling production. 82K is way too many to build when your design isn't finalized. It makes much more sense as a production goal when they hit mass production, or the number they expect to be able to sell.
- elif 6y ago
  well, with ML a few hundred is not sufficient to gather the massive amount of data required. Tesla is only now getting enough data to get from level 2 to level 3 after generating 15M+ miles of data per day for years.
  - Espressosaurus 6y ago
    That's an ML problem. Building out a factory to produce 100K cars is expensive: ask Tesla how much they've spent to hit their production goals, how many engineer/tech-years, and how much in supply chain effort it is. You just don't build that many prototypes, period, even if you're a trillion dollar company. You only build that many if they're saleable as real products so you can get market feedback that yes you're going down the right path. 82,000 doesn't sound like much, but for a prototype build with yield rates that are undoubtedly shitty, non-final hardware, and required automotive-spec that is completely nuts. There's a reason why it's dropped to 600 so far and it's because they haven't finalized the hardware and they realize they aren't ready for mass production yet. Honestly, even 600 prototypes sounds like a lot to me for something as complicated and expensive as a car, but I don't work in that field so I can't say what normal is. It's about right for beyond-the-prototype-and-trying-to-get-to-a-manufacturable-product in consumer or industrial hardware, depending on the target market size.

by soared 6y ago

Espressosaurus 6y ago

You don't build 82K for prototypes. You build hundreds to a few thousand for prototypes as you're scaling production. 82K is way too many to build when your design isn't finalized. It makes much more sense as a production goal when they hit mass production, or the number they expect to be able to sell.

elif 6y ago
well, with ML a few hundred is not sufficient to gather the massive amount of data required. Tesla is only now getting enough data to get from level 2 to level 3 after generating 15M+ miles of data per day for years.
- Espressosaurus 6y ago
  That's an ML problem. Building out a factory to produce 100K cars is expensive: ask Tesla how much they've spent to hit their production goals, how many engineer/tech-years, and how much in supply chain effort it is. You just don't build that many prototypes, period, even if you're a trillion dollar company. You only build that many if they're saleable as real products so you can get market feedback that yes you're going down the right path. 82,000 doesn't sound like much, but for a prototype build with yield rates that are undoubtedly shitty, non-final hardware, and required automotive-spec that is completely nuts. There's a reason why it's dropped to 600 so far and it's because they haven't finalized the hardware and they realize they aren't ready for mass production yet. Honestly, even 600 prototypes sounds like a lot to me for something as complicated and expensive as a car, but I don't work in that field so I can't say what normal is. It's about right for beyond-the-prototype-and-trying-to-get-to-a-manufacturable-product in consumer or industrial hardware, depending on the target market size.