5 ms·

I don't doubt that there have been cases of thrombosis, and that those may have been caused by the vaccine. But I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths

I don't doubt that there have been cases of thrombosis, and that those may have been caused by the vaccine. But I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. Even for young people. Do you have any data to support this? Just because people "are worried" doesn't mean they have any reason to be worried.

bryanwb 6y ago
The IFR for young people from Covid is less than 0.03%. that is very, very low.
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  Depends on what you call "young" - have a look at figure 2 here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 For people 35-39 it appears to be 0.01%-0.1%.
josephcsible 6y ago
> I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. This is a key flaw in your logic. The choices aren't just "get the AZ vaccine" or "100% chance of catching COVID", so you need to multiply the IFR of COVID by the chance you'll catch it to have a fair comparison.
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity, which will still take quite a while in Europe. Especially if people keep refusing to take the AZ vaccine. And even if the chance is only 1/4, I would estimate that the numbers would still be higher for covid than for AZ for people in their 30s and above.
  - josephcsible 6y ago
    > I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity That seems unlikely. For one thing, after more than a year, there have been 130 million cases out of a population of 8 billion, which is less than 2%. Do you expect this to dramatically spike in only a few months at this point? Also, remember that there are other vaccines available, so it's not the case that AZ or catching COVID are the only two ways to herd immunity.
    - DangerousPie 6y ago
      I assume that's the number of confirmed cases? Because we know that's a huge underestimate, even in countries with widespread testing. For example in the UK approximately 15% have had an infection already, and that's with lockdown measures etc: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/3february2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... I'm making the assumption that we want to reopen our economies again at some point, at which point the infection risk will obviously rise much higher than that (unless we have reached herd immunity). The only way to prevent that is to get people vaccinated. And right now for many countries in Europe AZ is the only vaccine available, since the supply of the mRNA vaccines is for too low.

bryanwb 6y ago

The IFR for young people from Covid is less than 0.03%. that is very, very low.

DangerousPie 6y ago
Depends on what you call "young" - have a look at figure 2 here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 For people 35-39 it appears to be 0.01%-0.1%.

josephcsible 6y ago

> I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. This is a key flaw in your logic. The choices aren't just "get the AZ vaccine" or "100% chance of catching COVID", so you need to multiply the IFR of COVID by the chance you'll catch it to have a fair comparison.

DangerousPie 6y ago
I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity, which will still take quite a while in Europe. Especially if people keep refusing to take the AZ vaccine. And even if the chance is only 1/4, I would estimate that the numbers would still be higher for covid than for AZ for people in their 30s and above.
- josephcsible 6y ago
  > I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity That seems unlikely. For one thing, after more than a year, there have been 130 million cases out of a population of 8 billion, which is less than 2%. Do you expect this to dramatically spike in only a few months at this point? Also, remember that there are other vaccines available, so it's not the case that AZ or catching COVID are the only two ways to herd immunity.
  - DangerousPie 6y ago
    I assume that's the number of confirmed cases? Because we know that's a huge underestimate, even in countries with widespread testing. For example in the UK approximately 15% have had an infection already, and that's with lockdown measures etc: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/3february2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... I'm making the assumption that we want to reopen our economies again at some point, at which point the infection risk will obviously rise much higher than that (unless we have reached herd immunity). The only way to prevent that is to get people vaccinated. And right now for many countries in Europe AZ is the only vaccine available, since the supply of the mRNA vaccines is for too low.