3 ms·

> Are those worries supported by any data? Yes. The incidence is as of a week or two ago significantly above what one would expect. Additionally this effect ca

> Are those worries supported by any data? Yes. The incidence is as of a week or two ago significantly above what one would expect. Additionally this effect can be shown in all countries where AZ was given to people below the age of 55 and no such cases happened to people given other vaccines. You can quickly google for the numbers and days if you want.

DangerousPie 6y ago
I don't doubt that there have been cases of thrombosis, and that those may have been caused by the vaccine. But I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. Even for young people. Do you have any data to support this? Just because people "are worried" doesn't mean they have any reason to be worried.
- bryanwb 6y ago
  The IFR for young people from Covid is less than 0.03%. that is very, very low.
  - DangerousPie 6y ago
    Depends on what you call "young" - have a look at figure 2 here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 For people 35-39 it appears to be 0.01%-0.1%.
- josephcsible 6y ago
  > I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. This is a key flaw in your logic. The choices aren't just "get the AZ vaccine" or "100% chance of catching COVID", so you need to multiply the IFR of COVID by the chance you'll catch it to have a fair comparison.
  - DangerousPie 6y ago
    I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity, which will still take quite a while in Europe. Especially if people keep refusing to take the AZ vaccine. And even if the chance is only 1/4, I would estimate that the numbers would still be higher for covid than for AZ for people in their 30s and above.
    - josephcsible 6y ago
      > I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity That seems unlikely. For one thing, after more than a year, there have been 130 million cases out of a population of 8 billion, which is less than 2%. Do you expect this to dramatically spike in only a few months at this point? Also, remember that there are other vaccines available, so it's not the case that AZ or catching COVID are the only two ways to herd immunity.
      - DangerousPie 6y ago
        I assume that's the number of confirmed cases? Because we know that's a huge underestimate, even in countries with widespread testing. For example in the UK approximately 15% have had an infection already, and that's with lockdown measures etc: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/3february2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... I'm making the assumption that we want to reopen our economies again at some point, at which point the infection risk will obviously rise much higher than that (unless we have reached herd immunity). The only way to prevent that is to get people vaccinated. And right now for many countries in Europe AZ is the only vaccine available, since the supply of the mRNA vaccines is for too low.
Tepix 6y ago
I don't think your statement supports your conclusion. There were more than 50 deaths by COVID-19 in Norway last month. How many people were vaccinated with AZ and didn't die? How many of them won't die in the coming months? Could they have gotten a different vaccine? What if there wasn't enough of those other vaccines? In this statement: "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far" What are "the affected age ranges"? Affected by what? COVID-19? AZ vaccinations? Thrombosis due to AZ?
- the_mitsuhiko 6y ago
  13 people under 50 died in Norway from Covid. 3 in the same age range (I believe) died of CVST after AZ. Not sure after how many doses in the age range but likely below 120.000 given the relatively few shipped to Norway. After that the regulator suspended it.

DangerousPie 6y ago

I don't doubt that there have been cases of thrombosis, and that those may have been caused by the vaccine. But I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. Even for young people. Do you have any data to support this? Just because people "are worried" doesn't mean they have any reason to be worried.

bryanwb 6y ago
The IFR for young people from Covid is less than 0.03%. that is very, very low.
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  Depends on what you call "young" - have a look at figure 2 here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 For people 35-39 it appears to be 0.01%-0.1%.
josephcsible 6y ago
> I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. This is a key flaw in your logic. The choices aren't just "get the AZ vaccine" or "100% chance of catching COVID", so you need to multiply the IFR of COVID by the chance you'll catch it to have a fair comparison.
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity, which will still take quite a while in Europe. Especially if people keep refusing to take the AZ vaccine. And even if the chance is only 1/4, I would estimate that the numbers would still be higher for covid than for AZ for people in their 30s and above.
  - josephcsible 6y ago
    > I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity That seems unlikely. For one thing, after more than a year, there have been 130 million cases out of a population of 8 billion, which is less than 2%. Do you expect this to dramatically spike in only a few months at this point? Also, remember that there are other vaccines available, so it's not the case that AZ or catching COVID are the only two ways to herd immunity.
    - DangerousPie 6y ago
      I assume that's the number of confirmed cases? Because we know that's a huge underestimate, even in countries with widespread testing. For example in the UK approximately 15% have had an infection already, and that's with lockdown measures etc: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/3february2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... I'm making the assumption that we want to reopen our economies again at some point, at which point the infection risk will obviously rise much higher than that (unless we have reached herd immunity). The only way to prevent that is to get people vaccinated. And right now for many countries in Europe AZ is the only vaccine available, since the supply of the mRNA vaccines is for too low.

Tepix 6y ago

I don't think your statement supports your conclusion. There were more than 50 deaths by COVID-19 in Norway last month. How many people were vaccinated with AZ and didn't die? How many of them won't die in the coming months? Could they have gotten a different vaccine? What if there wasn't enough of those other vaccines? In this statement: "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far" What are "the affected age ranges"? Affected by what? COVID-19? AZ vaccinations? Thrombosis due to AZ?

the_mitsuhiko 6y ago
13 people under 50 died in Norway from Covid. 3 in the same age range (I believe) died of CVST after AZ. Not sure after how many doses in the age range but likely below 120.000 given the relatively few shipped to Norway. After that the regulator suspended it.