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Are those worries supported by any data? As far as I can tell the rate of deaths after vaccinations is still incredibly low if you take into account how many pe

Are those worries supported by any data? As far as I can tell the rate of deaths after vaccinations is still incredibly low if you take into account how many people have been vaccinated. The fatality rate from Covid is much higher, even for young people. And that's not even taking into account the fact that a non-vaccinated person is also a potential carrier that can infect others.

the_mitsuhiko 6y ago
> Are those worries supported by any data? Yes. The incidence is as of a week or two ago significantly above what one would expect. Additionally this effect can be shown in all countries where AZ was given to people below the age of 55 and no such cases happened to people given other vaccines. You can quickly google for the numbers and days if you want.
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  I don't doubt that there have been cases of thrombosis, and that those may have been caused by the vaccine. But I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. Even for young people. Do you have any data to support this? Just because people "are worried" doesn't mean they have any reason to be worried.
  - bryanwb 6y ago
    The IFR for young people from Covid is less than 0.03%. that is very, very low.
    - DangerousPie 6y ago
      Depends on what you call "young" - have a look at figure 2 here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 For people 35-39 it appears to be 0.01%-0.1%.
  - josephcsible 6y ago
    > I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. This is a key flaw in your logic. The choices aren't just "get the AZ vaccine" or "100% chance of catching COVID", so you need to multiply the IFR of COVID by the chance you'll catch it to have a fair comparison.
    - DangerousPie 6y ago
      I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity, which will still take quite a while in Europe. Especially if people keep refusing to take the AZ vaccine. And even if the chance is only 1/4, I would estimate that the numbers would still be higher for covid than for AZ for people in their 30s and above.
      - josephcsible 6y ago
        > I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity That seems unlikely. For one thing, after more than a year, there have been 130 million cases out of a population of 8 billion, which is less than 2%. Do you expect this to dramatically spike in only a few months at this point? Also, remember that there are other vaccines available, so it's not the case that AZ or catching COVID are the only two ways to herd immunity.
        DangerousPie 6y ago
        I assume that's the number of confirmed cases? Because we know that's a huge underestimate, even in countries with widespread testing. For example in the UK approximately 15% have had an infection already, and that's with lockdown measures etc: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/3february2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... I'm making the assumption that we want to reopen our economies again at some point, at which point the infection risk will obviously rise much higher than that (unless we have reached herd immunity). The only way to prevent that is to get people vaccinated. And right now for many countries in Europe AZ is the only vaccine available, since the supply of the mRNA vaccines is for too low.
- Tepix 6y ago
  I don't think your statement supports your conclusion. There were more than 50 deaths by COVID-19 in Norway last month. How many people were vaccinated with AZ and didn't die? How many of them won't die in the coming months? Could they have gotten a different vaccine? What if there wasn't enough of those other vaccines? In this statement: "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far" What are "the affected age ranges"? Affected by what? COVID-19? AZ vaccinations? Thrombosis due to AZ?
  - the_mitsuhiko 6y ago
    13 people under 50 died in Norway from Covid. 3 in the same age range (I believe) died of CVST after AZ. Not sure after how many doses in the age range but likely below 120.000 given the relatively few shipped to Norway. After that the regulator suspended it.
sm4rk0 6y ago
It's still not proven that vaccinated people can't infect others: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-p...
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  Maybe, but it's very likely that the risk will be significantly lower than for unvaccinated people. And there was actually a CDC study a few days ago that confirmed that the vaccines prevent infection entirely, which would obviously stop transmission: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n888 https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n888
- aaomidi 6y ago
  More so that wasn't the focus with the vaccines and it wasn't part of the testing. Newer testing is showing a near complete stop of transmissions with vaccines. CDC is actively changing guidelines as these studies come out.
- throwawayboise 6y ago
  We also don't know how long the vaccine immunity lasts. I've been reluctant to get the vaccine because I've already had and recovered from COVID. Some people are telling me that immunity from having the virus may last only 90 days. If that's the case, why do we expect the vaccine immunity to last any longer?
  - loukrazy 6y ago
    There is evidence that the Pfizer vaccine is still effective at least 6 months later https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/01/pfizer-covid-vaccine-over-90-effective-least-6-months-study/4830501001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/01/pfizer...
    - throwawayboise 6y ago
      Thanks for that, the report appears to be very recent. However the story does note (at the end) that "how long they will remain effective" is still an outstanding question. And why would the vaccine immunity be longer lasting than the natural immunity from having contracted the virus?
josephcsible 6y ago
> The fatality rate from Covid is much higher, even for young people. Are you taking into account that these blood clot deaths are happening disproportionately in younger people? Also, are you assuming that anyone who turns down the AstraZenaca vaccine is definitely going to get COVID?
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  Yes - IFR for people in their 30s is still between 0.01% and 0.1%, which is significantly higher than the rate of death with thrombosis after AZ. OP is claiming that "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far." so that's what I'm questioning.
  - curryst 6y ago
    Their point is that AZ is less likely to kill you if you would get COVID without the vaccine. If you weren't going to get COVID either way, the vaccine exposes you to a very small risk that you wouldn't have been exposed to otherwise. In regions where COVID is well-controlled, you might save lives by rejecting the AZ vaccine and maintaining the current lockdown/measures until non-AZ vaccines are available. The risk of death from the AZ vaccine seems to be about 1 in 500k. If you're a country of 10 million people, you would expect roughly 20 deaths from the vaccine. If fewer than 20,000 people would get COVID, the vaccine would kill more people than COVID would. If more than 20,000 people would get COVID, the vaccine would save lives. Basically the risk of dying from the vaccine applies to everyone, because we want everyone vaccinated. The risk of dying from COVID only applies to people who actually get COVID. You'd have to look at projections to see which is likely to be more risky, but you would have to have really good control of COVID for the vaccine to be riskier.

the_mitsuhiko 6y ago

> Are those worries supported by any data? Yes. The incidence is as of a week or two ago significantly above what one would expect. Additionally this effect can be shown in all countries where AZ was given to people below the age of 55 and no such cases happened to people given other vaccines. You can quickly google for the numbers and days if you want.

DangerousPie 6y ago
I don't doubt that there have been cases of thrombosis, and that those may have been caused by the vaccine. But I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. Even for young people. Do you have any data to support this? Just because people "are worried" doesn't mean they have any reason to be worried.
- bryanwb 6y ago
  The IFR for young people from Covid is less than 0.03%. that is very, very low.
  - DangerousPie 6y ago
    Depends on what you call "young" - have a look at figure 2 here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 For people 35-39 it appears to be 0.01%-0.1%.
- josephcsible 6y ago
  > I haven't seen any proof that the rate of deaths caused by this is anywhere near as high as the IFR of covid. This is a key flaw in your logic. The choices aren't just "get the AZ vaccine" or "100% chance of catching COVID", so you need to multiply the IFR of COVID by the chance you'll catch it to have a fair comparison.
  - DangerousPie 6y ago
    I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity, which will still take quite a while in Europe. Especially if people keep refusing to take the AZ vaccine. And even if the chance is only 1/4, I would estimate that the numbers would still be higher for covid than for AZ for people in their 30s and above.
    - josephcsible 6y ago
      > I would argue that that chance approaches 100% until we reach herd immunity That seems unlikely. For one thing, after more than a year, there have been 130 million cases out of a population of 8 billion, which is less than 2%. Do you expect this to dramatically spike in only a few months at this point? Also, remember that there are other vaccines available, so it's not the case that AZ or catching COVID are the only two ways to herd immunity.
      - DangerousPie 6y ago
        I assume that's the number of confirmed cases? Because we know that's a huge underestimate, even in countries with widespread testing. For example in the UK approximately 15% have had an infection already, and that's with lockdown measures etc: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/3february2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... I'm making the assumption that we want to reopen our economies again at some point, at which point the infection risk will obviously rise much higher than that (unless we have reached herd immunity). The only way to prevent that is to get people vaccinated. And right now for many countries in Europe AZ is the only vaccine available, since the supply of the mRNA vaccines is for too low.
Tepix 6y ago
I don't think your statement supports your conclusion. There were more than 50 deaths by COVID-19 in Norway last month. How many people were vaccinated with AZ and didn't die? How many of them won't die in the coming months? Could they have gotten a different vaccine? What if there wasn't enough of those other vaccines? In this statement: "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far" What are "the affected age ranges"? Affected by what? COVID-19? AZ vaccinations? Thrombosis due to AZ?
- the_mitsuhiko 6y ago
  13 people under 50 died in Norway from Covid. 3 in the same age range (I believe) died of CVST after AZ. Not sure after how many doses in the age range but likely below 120.000 given the relatively few shipped to Norway. After that the regulator suspended it.

sm4rk0 6y ago

It's still not proven that vaccinated people can't infect others: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-p...

DangerousPie 6y ago
Maybe, but it's very likely that the risk will be significantly lower than for unvaccinated people. And there was actually a CDC study a few days ago that confirmed that the vaccines prevent infection entirely, which would obviously stop transmission: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n888 https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n888
aaomidi 6y ago
More so that wasn't the focus with the vaccines and it wasn't part of the testing. Newer testing is showing a near complete stop of transmissions with vaccines. CDC is actively changing guidelines as these studies come out.
throwawayboise 6y ago
We also don't know how long the vaccine immunity lasts. I've been reluctant to get the vaccine because I've already had and recovered from COVID. Some people are telling me that immunity from having the virus may last only 90 days. If that's the case, why do we expect the vaccine immunity to last any longer?
- loukrazy 6y ago
  There is evidence that the Pfizer vaccine is still effective at least 6 months later https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/01/pfizer-covid-vaccine-over-90-effective-least-6-months-study/4830501001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/01/pfizer...
  - throwawayboise 6y ago
    Thanks for that, the report appears to be very recent. However the story does note (at the end) that "how long they will remain effective" is still an outstanding question. And why would the vaccine immunity be longer lasting than the natural immunity from having contracted the virus?

josephcsible 6y ago

> The fatality rate from Covid is much higher, even for young people. Are you taking into account that these blood clot deaths are happening disproportionately in younger people? Also, are you assuming that anyone who turns down the AstraZenaca vaccine is definitely going to get COVID?

DangerousPie 6y ago
Yes - IFR for people in their 30s is still between 0.01% and 0.1%, which is significantly higher than the rate of death with thrombosis after AZ. OP is claiming that "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far." so that's what I'm questioning.
- curryst 6y ago
  Their point is that AZ is less likely to kill you if you would get COVID without the vaccine. If you weren't going to get COVID either way, the vaccine exposes you to a very small risk that you wouldn't have been exposed to otherwise. In regions where COVID is well-controlled, you might save lives by rejecting the AZ vaccine and maintaining the current lockdown/measures until non-AZ vaccines are available. The risk of death from the AZ vaccine seems to be about 1 in 500k. If you're a country of 10 million people, you would expect roughly 20 deaths from the vaccine. If fewer than 20,000 people would get COVID, the vaccine would kill more people than COVID would. If more than 20,000 people would get COVID, the vaccine would save lives. Basically the risk of dying from the vaccine applies to everyone, because we want everyone vaccinated. The risk of dying from COVID only applies to people who actually get COVID. You'd have to look at projections to see which is likely to be more risky, but you would have to have really good control of COVID for the vaccine to be riskier.