4 ms·

It seems this excludes increases in efficiencies. For example today we have lighting that uses a small fraction of the power of a couple decades ago. Plus we'r

It seems this excludes increases in efficiencies. For example today we have lighting that uses a small fraction of the power of a couple decades ago. Plus we're nearing peak populations, after which the number of humans will be going down.

_jal 6y ago
Energy efficiencies do not decrease energy use, you just get more of the cheaper thing. I agree more with the second point; the way that I'd say that is humans as a species will never self-moderate energy use.
- samvher 6y ago
  Obligatory mention of Jevons Paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
  - CharlesW 6y ago
    Thank you, I'm one of today's lucky 10,000. https://xkcd.com/1053/ https://xkcd.com/1053/
- epistasis 6y ago
  This is false, energy efficiencies do decrease energy use, in most situations. Jevon's paradox is the exception, not the rule. For example, increasing fuel efficiency of cars does decrease energy use, because fuel cost is not the limiting factor foe most car travel. Similarly, more efficient lighting, more efficient home space heating and water heating, and better weatherization of homes, all increase energy efficiency and decrease energy use. There's only so much lighting I would ever want to use, only so much heat, only so much time I want to spend in a car. Energy efficiency is one of the most powerful tools we have to reduce pollution, because it makes all the other things easier.
  - TedDoesntTalk 6y ago
    As an anecdote: if you take an ant population (or any controllable population), and put it into a confined space with constrained resources, the population eventually dies due to one of two things: 1. Elimination of resources 2. Excessive waste product (in this case, excrement and bodily wastes; pollution)
    - epistasis 6y ago
      You seem to be talking about the need of a species to rely on a greater ecosystem in order to survive. However, I'm not sure how that relates to demand elasticity and energy efficiency. Perhaps you could be a bit more explicit?
    - jjk166 6y ago
      Yeah, and if the sun turns off and stops pumping 174 PW into our system, we'd be pretty screwed. Luckily we do not live in a confined space with constrained resources.
  - revax 6y ago
    >For example, increasing fuel efficiency of cars does decrease energy use MPG from passenger car didn't decreased since 1976 despite huge advancement in fuel efficiency. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CAFE_mpg_curve_from_NHTSA%27s_Summary_of_Fuel_Economy_Performance,_December_2014.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CAFE_mpg_curve_from_NHTSA...
    - porb121 6y ago
      MPG is a measure of efficiency, so it makes sense that it increases. To support your argument, you would need to demonstrate a corresponding increase in vehicle miles traveled per car, so that total gallons of fuel burned (i.e. energy) is constant or increasing.
    - epistasis 6y ago
      There's a lot going on with US gasoline consumption: 1) land use decisions are pushing people further from workplaces 2) consumers are switching from the "car" class of vehicle to "light truck" which is negating fuel efficiency improvements [1]. There's a lot going on here, from people getting larger vehicles for perceived safety, to better comfort, to just having more money to spend on larger vehicles. Plus, all those people who think they need a truck despite using the bed once or twice per year. 3) Demand for gasoline is incredibly inelastic in response to price, with huge price spikes having almost no change in gallons of gasoline even as consumption in dollars spike [2] [1] https://thenextweb.com/shift/2021/01/12/despite-ev-growth-gas-mileage-of-us-vehicle-fleets-has-tanked/ https://thenextweb.com/shift/2021/01/12/despite-ev-growth-ga... [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40893 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40893
bushbaba 6y ago
Most energy usage isn’t residential in nature. It’s likely our industrial needs will continue to increase even with a smaller population

_jal 6y ago

Energy efficiencies do not decrease energy use, you just get more of the cheaper thing. I agree more with the second point; the way that I'd say that is humans as a species will never self-moderate energy use.

samvher 6y ago
Obligatory mention of Jevons Paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
- CharlesW 6y ago
  Thank you, I'm one of today's lucky 10,000. https://xkcd.com/1053/ https://xkcd.com/1053/
epistasis 6y ago
This is false, energy efficiencies do decrease energy use, in most situations. Jevon's paradox is the exception, not the rule. For example, increasing fuel efficiency of cars does decrease energy use, because fuel cost is not the limiting factor foe most car travel. Similarly, more efficient lighting, more efficient home space heating and water heating, and better weatherization of homes, all increase energy efficiency and decrease energy use. There's only so much lighting I would ever want to use, only so much heat, only so much time I want to spend in a car. Energy efficiency is one of the most powerful tools we have to reduce pollution, because it makes all the other things easier.
- TedDoesntTalk 6y ago
  As an anecdote: if you take an ant population (or any controllable population), and put it into a confined space with constrained resources, the population eventually dies due to one of two things: 1. Elimination of resources 2. Excessive waste product (in this case, excrement and bodily wastes; pollution)
  - epistasis 6y ago
    You seem to be talking about the need of a species to rely on a greater ecosystem in order to survive. However, I'm not sure how that relates to demand elasticity and energy efficiency. Perhaps you could be a bit more explicit?
  - jjk166 6y ago
    Yeah, and if the sun turns off and stops pumping 174 PW into our system, we'd be pretty screwed. Luckily we do not live in a confined space with constrained resources.
- revax 6y ago
  >For example, increasing fuel efficiency of cars does decrease energy use MPG from passenger car didn't decreased since 1976 despite huge advancement in fuel efficiency. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CAFE_mpg_curve_from_NHTSA%27s_Summary_of_Fuel_Economy_Performance,_December_2014.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CAFE_mpg_curve_from_NHTSA...
  - porb121 6y ago
    MPG is a measure of efficiency, so it makes sense that it increases. To support your argument, you would need to demonstrate a corresponding increase in vehicle miles traveled per car, so that total gallons of fuel burned (i.e. energy) is constant or increasing.
  - epistasis 6y ago
    There's a lot going on with US gasoline consumption: 1) land use decisions are pushing people further from workplaces 2) consumers are switching from the "car" class of vehicle to "light truck" which is negating fuel efficiency improvements [1]. There's a lot going on here, from people getting larger vehicles for perceived safety, to better comfort, to just having more money to spend on larger vehicles. Plus, all those people who think they need a truck despite using the bed once or twice per year. 3) Demand for gasoline is incredibly inelastic in response to price, with huge price spikes having almost no change in gallons of gasoline even as consumption in dollars spike [2] [1] https://thenextweb.com/shift/2021/01/12/despite-ev-growth-gas-mileage-of-us-vehicle-fleets-has-tanked/ https://thenextweb.com/shift/2021/01/12/despite-ev-growth-ga... [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40893 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40893

bushbaba 6y ago

Most energy usage isn’t residential in nature. It’s likely our industrial needs will continue to increase even with a smaller population