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> Right now most population models suggest we'll see growth flatten within decades, and peak within a century. We’re way off topic here but what the heck… in m

> Right now most population models suggest we'll see growth flatten within decades, and peak within a century. We’re way off topic here but what the heck… in my entire life, I’ve not seen one single ‘population model’ play out accurately. We’ve seen dozens of popular ones that have failed to come true in the past century alone - what makes today’s different?

vidarh 6y ago
That fertility rates have been consistently dropping in line with recent models for a long time [1]. Global fertility rates are already below 2.4, with ~2.1 the replacement rate. China is currently set to face a reversal somewhere from the middle of this decade to 1-2 decades away depending on who you believe. India is set to follow. Many smaller countries are also reversing around now, but those two for obvious reasons have a huge impact. The last holdouts with high fertility are a handful of sub-Saharan states, with Niger by far the worst (Somalia second - the two are the only countries in the world left with fertility rates above 6), but even Niger is seeing fertility rates plummet as it's economic growth have sped up. The estimates varies massively based on various scenarios. E.g. on a current trajectory, China will see its population halve by 2100. It's likely you'll see the Chinese government do a lot to prevent the decline from being that steep because it will be an economic nightmare to manage, and so we can't assume the trajectories will remain unchanged. But nobody is actively trying to get much above-replacement fertility rates, so any political interference is likely to moderate delay the peak not prevent it. [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521