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Good point, your last sentence is what I've been wondering about for some time. From the past decades we have learned that there are clear economical and politi
by lasagnaphil 6y ago
Good point, your last sentence is what I've been wondering about for some time. From the past decades we have learned that there are clear economical and political disadvantages of having your currency as the world reserve currency - namely the Triffin Dilemma (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma). I think China already knows this from observing the US and might actually be hesitant on making their Yuan as the world reserve currency. Alternatives like Bitcoin might sound cool at first but isn't really a good solution because of its mathematical destiny as a deflationary asset, and that it can't be modulated effectively throughout monetary policy - only math and speculationary greed governs it! In an ideal world a system like the Bancor (that Keynes originally proposed) would be established if all countries have understood this dilemma and tried to come up with a peaceful solution for world trade. But China seems more and more unlikely to abandon their imperialist ambitions especially after Xi Jinping's inauguration (which to be fair, they've learned from previous empires like the Europe and the US).
There is quite some possibility that the reserve status of the US dollar will continue to slowly deteriorate, but there wouldn't be an alternative - we would be trading with a mixture of yuans, euros, dollars without any global consensus, and things would surprisingly run as nothing has happened. But then there is also some possibility that there will be a full-out global war between the old and new empires, and at that point the question of world currency and world trade becomes politically redundant.