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> "I bought my 2015 LEAF new and suspect it will not be economically viable in 2030" Why not? There are already companies who specialize in replacing early-mod

> "I bought my 2015 LEAF new and suspect it will not be economically viable in 2030" Why not? There are already companies who specialize in replacing early-model LEAF batteries with new, higher-capacity ones. By 2030, I imagine this could be a pretty widespread industry - perhaps even rebuilding/remanufacturing OEM battery packs with new cells. And so long as the battery still works, that LEAF will always be "economically viable" because unlike combustion vehicles, there are practically no ongoing maintenance costs.

sokoloff 6y ago
Because it will cost around $2-3K for the battery replacement on a car chassis that’ll be worth around $2K to get back to a range and set of features that won’t be competitive with the then-current (no pun intended) EVs or other $5K cars. If you want to spend $5K on a car in 2030, you’ll have way better options than a 75 mile range, 6kW charging (20-24 miles per hour) 2015 LEAF (CHAdeMO will be fully dead by then and most 2015 LEAFs don't even have it.)
- deelowe 6y ago
  I wish a battery replacement was 2 grand. Try like 8 if you can find one.
- Reason077 6y ago
  A $5k, 75-mile used EV still offers a lot of utility and value because it will cost almost nothing to run and maintain. No doubt you’ll be able to buy great $5k combustion cars in 2030, but ongoing fuel and maintenance means their true cost is a lot more than that! And in some parts of the world, increasingly stringent emissions controls mean that combustion cars become more expensive, or even illegal, to drive in cities. You’re right about CHAdeMO, but anyone buying a 75 mile EV isn’t going to care too much about fast charging anyway. And by 2030, someone may have come up with a retrofit and/or adapter to make old LEAFs compatible with CCS?
  - sokoloff 6y ago
    A 2018 model 3 or X might be a sub-$5K (in 2021 dollars) car by 2030. If they are, very few batteries will be replaced in old LEAFs. The faster that new EVs mature/evolve, the less comparative value older ones have meaning they will be getting scrapped when the next battery replacement is needed. I do all the maintenance on our cars (ex- tires, body, and warranty/recalls). The LEAF has already had one battery repair under warranty (at around 17K miles, out of service for several weeks and likely a $2K+ repair at future independent rates-was 2 techs for most of a day plus pages of special sealants and consumables) Other than that it has needed wipers and windshield fluid and that’s it. If that pattern keeps up, they’re still headed to the scrapyard en masse, I think.
    - theshrike79 6y ago
      I think there will be a secondhand market offering battery upgrades for older EVs. So they just won't install the exact same battery, but a bigger one or a smaller one (lighter, but same capacity). 10 years of R&D on batteries by some of the biggest corporations in the world should provide some new innovations.

sokoloff 6y ago

Because it will cost around $2-3K for the battery replacement on a car chassis that’ll be worth around $2K to get back to a range and set of features that won’t be competitive with the then-current (no pun intended) EVs or other $5K cars. If you want to spend $5K on a car in 2030, you’ll have way better options than a 75 mile range, 6kW charging (20-24 miles per hour) 2015 LEAF (CHAdeMO will be fully dead by then and most 2015 LEAFs don't even have it.)

deelowe 6y ago
I wish a battery replacement was 2 grand. Try like 8 if you can find one.
Reason077 6y ago
A $5k, 75-mile used EV still offers a lot of utility and value because it will cost almost nothing to run and maintain. No doubt you’ll be able to buy great $5k combustion cars in 2030, but ongoing fuel and maintenance means their true cost is a lot more than that! And in some parts of the world, increasingly stringent emissions controls mean that combustion cars become more expensive, or even illegal, to drive in cities. You’re right about CHAdeMO, but anyone buying a 75 mile EV isn’t going to care too much about fast charging anyway. And by 2030, someone may have come up with a retrofit and/or adapter to make old LEAFs compatible with CCS?
- sokoloff 6y ago
  A 2018 model 3 or X might be a sub-$5K (in 2021 dollars) car by 2030. If they are, very few batteries will be replaced in old LEAFs. The faster that new EVs mature/evolve, the less comparative value older ones have meaning they will be getting scrapped when the next battery replacement is needed. I do all the maintenance on our cars (ex- tires, body, and warranty/recalls). The LEAF has already had one battery repair under warranty (at around 17K miles, out of service for several weeks and likely a $2K+ repair at future independent rates-was 2 techs for most of a day plus pages of special sealants and consumables) Other than that it has needed wipers and windshield fluid and that’s it. If that pattern keeps up, they’re still headed to the scrapyard en masse, I think.
  - theshrike79 6y ago
    I think there will be a secondhand market offering battery upgrades for older EVs. So they just won't install the exact same battery, but a bigger one or a smaller one (lighter, but same capacity). 10 years of R&D on batteries by some of the biggest corporations in the world should provide some new innovations.