It actually is pretty easy to predict the future, in a limited sense, a decade out: the cost of new technologies generally follows an exponentially declining “l

It actually is pretty easy to predict the future, in a limited sense, a decade out: the cost of new technologies generally follows an exponentially declining “learning” curve. This has been extremely well studied in the case of the aircraft and semiconductor industries, and is the subject of hundreds/thousands of articles. Of course, some conditions must be met—hence the articles—like plentiful inputs, lack of monopoly power, and government (dis)incentives, but we’d see evidence of these constraining battery tech by now. The input variable is the cumulative number of units, and of course we can’t be exact about the trajectory of that number, but we can infer from X MWh manufactured -> $/MWh.