I estimate that by the middle of this decade, linux will no longer be a moving target for third parties. It is just getting complex, mature and polished enough

I estimate that by the middle of this decade, linux will no longer be a moving target for third parties. It is just getting complex, mature and polished enough to keep continuously changing. It will likely be good enough for most things most people would like to do. Nevertheless, I don't think that will make its market in increase significantly. There are more factors that influence the success on the desktop beyond polish, maturity and technical excellence. Even listening what industry say they need is a good indicator of what needs to be done. The "third party software industry" is like steve jobs said about users: "we can't just ask for what customers want".