We can make progress in solving this specific inference problem with a carefully constructed experimental design & human challenge trials. E.g. repeat variatio

We can make progress in solving this specific inference problem with a carefully constructed experimental design & human challenge trials. E.g. repeat variations of the scenario where we keep all factors the same but intervene and force one or more factors to something else, e.g. force the pedestrian to listen to a boombox, not headphones. Or force the driver to drive a trolleybus not an SUV. Consider a full factorial design across the following dimensions: inattentive | attentive ; headphone | none | boombox ; jaywalk | non jaywalk ; wearing black | wearing dark blue | wearing high viz reflective gear ; night | day | dawn | dusk ; driver sober | drunk | half as drunk | twice as drunk | on meth ; driver speeding | driving at speed limit | driving at half limit ; driving large SUV | hatchback | pushbike | trolleybus | road train . A mere 2 * 3 * 2 * 3 * 4 * 5 * 3 * 5 = 10,800 different scenarios. Since the outcome in each scenario is stochastic we might need to do 10-fold replication per scenario. So a total of 108,000 trials. Approval from research ethics review committee pending.