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I'm sorry but I think this is hogwash. The idea that America could function for 6 weeks in a lockdown to the level described to actually stop the transmission,

I'm sorry but I think this is hogwash. The idea that America could function for 6 weeks in a lockdown to the level described to actually stop the transmission, by the time transmission started, is not plausible to me, and I imagine many others. This would have entailed no one working at grocery stores, no deliveries, no travel, no global trade. I just don't buy that this was ever plausible for however long people suggest: 3 weeks, 6 weeks whatever. And to what end. When do we open up to the rest of the world. I think your sentiment is hindsight wishful thinking/blame assignment. Now, criticizing the fact that we did not try what I would term more effective measures to stop transmission are fair points. Wide-spread cheap testing, ramping up massive manufacturing of real N95 respirators for the entire country, I think these are more plausibly effective techniques we did not do that are worthy of criticism.

abraae 6y ago
I don't like the xenophobic tone of the parent, but you are incorrect. > This would have entailed no one working at grocery stores, no deliveries, no travel, no global trade. I just don't buy that this was ever plausible for however long people suggest: 3 weeks, 6 weeks whatever. The experiences of (at least) New Zealand and Australia are clear evidence it is absolutely possible, without the absurd extremes you are talking about.
- Izkata 6y ago
  Both of which still have lockdowns. So no, they couldn't manage it either.
  - amluto 6y ago
    They periodically reimport it. If I had to guess, I would guess that COVID can be transmitted by fomites, especially if kept cold, but that it’s extremely rare. In a place like the US or Europe, this is insignificant: your chance of getting seriously sick due to touching something is negligible, and the rate of additional cases due to this effect is inconsequential for public health. But in AU or NZ, where the background rate is essentially zero, a single reintroduction is a big deal.
    - kmonsen 6y ago
      Although I largely agree with you, they found a case in Norway where the most likely explanation was contact spreading from a person who had worked in that area 2 days prior. I feel there must be another explanation, but they do probably know the facts a lot better than me.
    - Izkata 6y ago
      > They periodically reimport it. Right, so why would the US - with much more porous borders - somehow do better?
      - amluto 6y ago
        I think doing as well as NZ would be a laudable goal. If the whole world did that well, then I think COVID would be quickly eradicated. But, beyond the fact that the US has large land borders, the US has a genuine problem. We are economically dependent on legal and illegal cross-border seasonal migration. I personally think that, with actual political will, the borders could be made a lot less porous, but this would involve attacking the supply and demand sides. Neither party is interested.
- kmonsen 6y ago
  They are islands though, even if large ones. I don't think there are any large connected landmass that has managed to successfully take a New Zealand/Taiwan. Also US has different states with different rules, but no ability to restrict travel between the states. And lots of rural areas that potentially had small covid pocket before it got diagnosed. I don't like the previous administration one bit, but this was a really hard problem. By the time covid was taken seriously I think it is confirmed it was a least spreading in Seattle and Bay Area.
  - martyvis 6y ago
    >They are islands though This reads like Covid arrived in the US through uncontrolled land crossings from Canada or Mexico? I'm pretty sure like Australia and NZ, it came by land and sea mainly. > Also US has different states with different rules, but no ability to restrict travel between the states Also Australia never had seen states close borders before. Yet somehow each of the 6 states and 2 territories managed to get legislation passed to do this, get police mobilised, and just got community buy-in that was going to work.
AshWolfy 6y ago
We love to say something isnt possible, while other countries do what we just said isnt possible.
- systemvoltage 6y ago
  USA is 330 million people. New Zealand is 1/2 the population of SF Bay Area. Just because NZ can demonstrate good COVID control, it cannot just apply at a massive nation. China has done it with authoritarian enforcement. There is no solution to this for USA, EU or large countries. Asian nations such as Japan and Korea are culturally different than the west. It’s impossible to change the culture of 330 million overnight.
  - Marsymars 6y ago
    Trying to explain away every incidence of successful covid-squashing as not applicable isn’t very convincing given that there aren’t any examples of jurisdictions that failed at a real attempt at covid squashing - every one of them succeeded. And this list is quite varied - it includes jurisdictions that are islands, that have long land borders, that are countries, that are sub-country-level, that are in the Anglosphere, that are outside of the Anglosphere, that have small populations, that have large populations, that are on three different continents, etc.
  - martyvis 6y ago
    > it cannot just apply at a massive nation And yet the massive USA clearly showed through COVID control that it is simply a collective of hundreds of fiefdoms (states, cities and even corporations) they for the most part were uncoordinated and did what was best for themselves, which turned out to be no good for no one.
    - systemvoltage 6y ago
      That's a feature not a bug IMO. I'd like individual counties and states control their fate, not federal gov since enforcement and containment is extremely localized. Federal gov can help with shortage of beds, food supplies and vaccine development which they did through Operation Warpspeed. It is befitting for Fed and illfitted to local counties. Here in Bay Area, there was much stricter control. Counties choose their fate, their path and their citizens want to trade off lockdowns vs. COVID rates. It's their call and I respect that kind of governance. At the extreme - I would absolutely abhor China style lockdowns in the USA. Did the USA fared well with COVID response? Not at all. Federal gov could have done a lot better to provide guidance (not enforcement) to states and counties.

abraae 6y ago

I don't like the xenophobic tone of the parent, but you are incorrect. > This would have entailed no one working at grocery stores, no deliveries, no travel, no global trade. I just don't buy that this was ever plausible for however long people suggest: 3 weeks, 6 weeks whatever. The experiences of (at least) New Zealand and Australia are clear evidence it is absolutely possible, without the absurd extremes you are talking about.

Izkata 6y ago
Both of which still have lockdowns. So no, they couldn't manage it either.
- amluto 6y ago
  They periodically reimport it. If I had to guess, I would guess that COVID can be transmitted by fomites, especially if kept cold, but that it’s extremely rare. In a place like the US or Europe, this is insignificant: your chance of getting seriously sick due to touching something is negligible, and the rate of additional cases due to this effect is inconsequential for public health. But in AU or NZ, where the background rate is essentially zero, a single reintroduction is a big deal.
  - kmonsen 6y ago
    Although I largely agree with you, they found a case in Norway where the most likely explanation was contact spreading from a person who had worked in that area 2 days prior. I feel there must be another explanation, but they do probably know the facts a lot better than me.
  - Izkata 6y ago
    > They periodically reimport it. Right, so why would the US - with much more porous borders - somehow do better?
    - amluto 6y ago
      I think doing as well as NZ would be a laudable goal. If the whole world did that well, then I think COVID would be quickly eradicated. But, beyond the fact that the US has large land borders, the US has a genuine problem. We are economically dependent on legal and illegal cross-border seasonal migration. I personally think that, with actual political will, the borders could be made a lot less porous, but this would involve attacking the supply and demand sides. Neither party is interested.
kmonsen 6y ago
They are islands though, even if large ones. I don't think there are any large connected landmass that has managed to successfully take a New Zealand/Taiwan. Also US has different states with different rules, but no ability to restrict travel between the states. And lots of rural areas that potentially had small covid pocket before it got diagnosed. I don't like the previous administration one bit, but this was a really hard problem. By the time covid was taken seriously I think it is confirmed it was a least spreading in Seattle and Bay Area.
- martyvis 6y ago
  >They are islands though This reads like Covid arrived in the US through uncontrolled land crossings from Canada or Mexico? I'm pretty sure like Australia and NZ, it came by land and sea mainly. > Also US has different states with different rules, but no ability to restrict travel between the states Also Australia never had seen states close borders before. Yet somehow each of the 6 states and 2 territories managed to get legislation passed to do this, get police mobilised, and just got community buy-in that was going to work.

AshWolfy 6y ago

We love to say something isnt possible, while other countries do what we just said isnt possible.

systemvoltage 6y ago
USA is 330 million people. New Zealand is 1/2 the population of SF Bay Area. Just because NZ can demonstrate good COVID control, it cannot just apply at a massive nation. China has done it with authoritarian enforcement. There is no solution to this for USA, EU or large countries. Asian nations such as Japan and Korea are culturally different than the west. It’s impossible to change the culture of 330 million overnight.
- Marsymars 6y ago
  Trying to explain away every incidence of successful covid-squashing as not applicable isn’t very convincing given that there aren’t any examples of jurisdictions that failed at a real attempt at covid squashing - every one of them succeeded. And this list is quite varied - it includes jurisdictions that are islands, that have long land borders, that are countries, that are sub-country-level, that are in the Anglosphere, that are outside of the Anglosphere, that have small populations, that have large populations, that are on three different continents, etc.
- martyvis 6y ago
  > it cannot just apply at a massive nation And yet the massive USA clearly showed through COVID control that it is simply a collective of hundreds of fiefdoms (states, cities and even corporations) they for the most part were uncoordinated and did what was best for themselves, which turned out to be no good for no one.
  - systemvoltage 6y ago
    That's a feature not a bug IMO. I'd like individual counties and states control their fate, not federal gov since enforcement and containment is extremely localized. Federal gov can help with shortage of beds, food supplies and vaccine development which they did through Operation Warpspeed. It is befitting for Fed and illfitted to local counties. Here in Bay Area, there was much stricter control. Counties choose their fate, their path and their citizens want to trade off lockdowns vs. COVID rates. It's their call and I respect that kind of governance. At the extreme - I would absolutely abhor China style lockdowns in the USA. Did the USA fared well with COVID response? Not at all. Federal gov could have done a lot better to provide guidance (not enforcement) to states and counties.