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If your trading strategy has a positive expected value, "gambling" ceases to be a useful descriptor for it. As I said elsewhere, calling everything gambling ju

If your trading strategy has a positive expected value, "gambling" ceases to be a useful descriptor for it. As I said elsewhere, calling everything gambling just because it isn't literally guaranteed is reductive and unproductive.

runarberg 6y ago
Not everything. This subthread is literally about options trading. Lets bring the Wikipedia definition of gambling into focus: > Gambling (also known as betting) is the wagering of money or something of value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the primary intent of winning money or material goods. Seems like a fit to me. Even if the expected outcome is positive, it is still uncertain, hence it is gambling. If you go to the casino and count cards at the black jack table, you have a positive expected outcome, however you are still gambling.
- fractionalhare 6y ago
  I disagree. If you open a probability textbook they'll recite the same thing. But in actual colloquial usage, gambling usually implies a lack of statistical edge and rigor. If you tell people your uncle goes to Vegas every weekend to gamble, they will have a markedly different reaction than if you tell them he goes and counts cards every weekend.
  - runarberg 6y ago
    Counting cards is a better analogy then I originally anticipated. You can only expect a positive outcome by counting cards if you have a high starting capital. This means that counting cards is a different game for rich folks then for poor folks. For poor folks to have a positive expected outcome they need to take out a big loan before they start. For most people this is options trading. Only for the already rich can you expect a positive return of investment. The poorer folks would need to take out a loan (often this is a second mortgage) to have a positive expected value. If you tell people your uncle just took out a huge loan to go to Vegas to count cards, they will have a different reaction still.
- gen220 6y ago
  Are covered puts gambling? I don’t think it’s rational to talk about “options” as if they’re all created equal. I think you’d find fewer people disagreeing with you, if you disambiguated by specifying naked puts and long calls. Covered puts are downside insurance, like buying flood insurance for your home. It doesn’t make sense for these to be spoken about in the same category, but by talking about “options trading”, it gets lumped in.

runarberg 6y ago

Not everything. This subthread is literally about options trading. Lets bring the Wikipedia definition of gambling into focus: > Gambling (also known as betting) is the wagering of money or something of value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the primary intent of winning money or material goods. Seems like a fit to me. Even if the expected outcome is positive, it is still uncertain, hence it is gambling. If you go to the casino and count cards at the black jack table, you have a positive expected outcome, however you are still gambling.

fractionalhare 6y ago
I disagree. If you open a probability textbook they'll recite the same thing. But in actual colloquial usage, gambling usually implies a lack of statistical edge and rigor. If you tell people your uncle goes to Vegas every weekend to gamble, they will have a markedly different reaction than if you tell them he goes and counts cards every weekend.
- runarberg 6y ago
  Counting cards is a better analogy then I originally anticipated. You can only expect a positive outcome by counting cards if you have a high starting capital. This means that counting cards is a different game for rich folks then for poor folks. For poor folks to have a positive expected outcome they need to take out a big loan before they start. For most people this is options trading. Only for the already rich can you expect a positive return of investment. The poorer folks would need to take out a loan (often this is a second mortgage) to have a positive expected value. If you tell people your uncle just took out a huge loan to go to Vegas to count cards, they will have a different reaction still.
gen220 6y ago
Are covered puts gambling? I don’t think it’s rational to talk about “options” as if they’re all created equal. I think you’d find fewer people disagreeing with you, if you disambiguated by specifying naked puts and long calls. Covered puts are downside insurance, like buying flood insurance for your home. It doesn’t make sense for these to be spoken about in the same category, but by talking about “options trading”, it gets lumped in.