If I got the vaccine and a blood clot, I'd want to understand it better. I'd want to understand the numbers at large to see whether it was caused by the vaccine

If I got the vaccine and a blood clot, I'd want to understand it better. I'd want to understand the numbers at large to see whether it was caused by the vaccine. In the UK, the numbers need to be considered fully: * 30 million have received the first * 4 million have received the second Let's assume that 80% of folk got the AZ vaccine and that there's an equal chance of clot after each vaccine. So we're stating that the chance is 42 / 34 * e6 * 0.8. That means that the chance of it happening (from just those numbers) is 0.000001544117647. Since there are some many zeros, 0.000_001_544_117647. These numbers are tiny. Now compare that with the chance of death from Covid. For over 50 the chance of death is much higher (calculated by UK population number and deaths in population over over 50 from COVID). When I did the calcs yesterday on the Norwegian (iirc) numbers assuming about 30 per million (higher ratio than the UK numbers), it seemed that for the under 40's the chance of death from vaccine was slightly lower than dying from COVID. In the UK, COVID deaths might be considered higher than other countries due to differences in the way in which deaths are recorded. The next question to ask is what the likelihood of a similar blood clot within the general population if they'd not had the vaccine. From what I hear those chances are similarly low. From what I've read from doctors it sounds like the chances are higher than without the vaccine. Some joked that this could therefore be considered an anti-blood clotting medicine. Next put this into comparison with other medications, such as the contraceptive pill where chance of blots clots is 1:1000. The numbers at large matter.