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> I'm pretty sure the USA still beats China in a fair fight. But if the USA is playing defense with Taiwan, the picture is very different. The background is t

> I'm pretty sure the USA still beats China in a fair fight. But if the USA is playing defense with Taiwan, the picture is very different. The background is that this has been wargamed and the the US could "lose fast", although this is probably in a "defend Taiwan" scenario. I wouldn't assume anything about a hypothetical "fair fight". https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-... https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-apparently-gets-its-ass-handed-to-it-in-war-games-2019-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-apparently-gets-its-a... https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/war-games-suggest-the-us-will-lose-fast-if-it-confronts-china-44960 https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/war-games-suggest-the-us-w...

dragontamer 6y ago
> The background is that this has been wargamed and the the US could "lose fast", although this is probably in a "defend Taiwan" scenario. I wouldn't assume anything about a hypothetical "fair fight". Taiwan is China's backyard. USA defending Taiwan requires significantly more resources than other locations. China has absolutely no capability to attack say... California, outside of nuclear weapons (at which point, the wargame is simple. We retaliate with our superior strategic weapons and MAD). A "Fair Fight" would be a hypothetical Antartica fight: far away from both countries, where the two navies meet on neutral grounds. China only has 2 carriers right now, and they're smaller 70,000 ton carriers. USA has multiple Gerald Ford super-carriers over 110,000 tons. As far as projecting a shield or area-denial, those carriers are superior to what China can do. Its only within the "radar + missile area" where the USA loses. --------- China has additional carriers on the way, but I'm not convinced that the carrier, nor the aircraft they're loading them with, can perform like a Gerald Ford Supercarrier or its loadout of aircraft.
- SideburnsOfDoom 6y ago
  Well, I would say that China knows exactly what they're gunning for, and it's not California or some hypothetical midpoint; it's what they regard as their own backyard.

dragontamer 6y ago

> The background is that this has been wargamed and the the US could "lose fast", although this is probably in a "defend Taiwan" scenario. I wouldn't assume anything about a hypothetical "fair fight". Taiwan is China's backyard. USA defending Taiwan requires significantly more resources than other locations. China has absolutely no capability to attack say... California, outside of nuclear weapons (at which point, the wargame is simple. We retaliate with our superior strategic weapons and MAD). A "Fair Fight" would be a hypothetical Antartica fight: far away from both countries, where the two navies meet on neutral grounds. China only has 2 carriers right now, and they're smaller 70,000 ton carriers. USA has multiple Gerald Ford super-carriers over 110,000 tons. As far as projecting a shield or area-denial, those carriers are superior to what China can do. Its only within the "radar + missile area" where the USA loses. --------- China has additional carriers on the way, but I'm not convinced that the carrier, nor the aircraft they're loading them with, can perform like a Gerald Ford Supercarrier or its loadout of aircraft.

SideburnsOfDoom 6y ago
Well, I would say that China knows exactly what they're gunning for, and it's not California or some hypothetical midpoint; it's what they regard as their own backyard.