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Those infections in China were a problem because there was no sufficient partial immunity in the world's population. New mutations will have to overcome that pa
by corty 6y ago
Those infections in China were a problem because there was no sufficient partial immunity in the world's population. New mutations will have to overcome that partial immunity (through vaccination or prior infection), or mutate very far, which is very rare.
- passivate 6y ago> New mutations will have to overcome that partial immunity (through vaccination or prior infection), or mutate very far, which is very rare. We don't know whether it is rare or not. And we don't know how long immunity lasts. The Flu hits us every year.
- corty 6y agoWe do know that "far" mutations are more rare just by simple mathematics. The higher the number of mutated genes, the lower the probability for that mutation.
- passivate 6y agoWait, are you basing your argument in immunology or mathematics? The number of mutations in each subsequent generation is not strictly linked with the ability to evade the host immune system. Most mutations are either neutral or harmful to the virus itself. All you need is a single mutation that is beneficial - which is what happened in one variant of Covid - 20I/501Y.V1, most notably a mutation in the spike - S:N501Y. Secondly, we do know that rates of spontaneous mutations are very high in RNA viruses, or more specifically, because of the way RNA polymerase functions. Lastly, as a nitpick, a gene is a region of DNA - which is not at play here. But I got the gist of what you wanted to say. - Source: works in biotech