4 ms·

They conveniently don’t include any data about how these numbers compare to the population at large.

by xref 6y ago

matzab 6y ago
In Germany incidence of CVST is around .3-.5/100,000 per year. (Higher in women under 50; some undiagnosed cases probably notwithstanding) Vaxzevira (the A-Z vaccine) has been in use for less than 3 months, ~2.2M doses have been given, resulting in 31 cases. So, worst case, you would have expected around 5 cases at this time. (Edit: changed acronym to English version, instead of the German one)
- Toenex 6y ago
  Does this comparison account for the vaccinations being administered to specific populations? In the UK it's been targeted at the most vulnerable & elderly.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- oliwarner 6y ago
  Historical trends don't factor in the past 12m stay-at and work-from home spike, and related spike in sedentary living. Your natural incidence rate is whole-population but the vaccine rollout has been weighted to the oldest and least healthy. These may be the population that most of those cases happened in otherwise. You can assuage some of these things by looking at other vaccines, assuming they're given to the same demographics.
o_p 6y ago
The same argument can be applied to covid deaths itself.
- xref 6y ago
  Huh? The number of people who died of sars-ncov-2 compared to how many died of it...before it existed?
  - manicdee 6y ago
    Unvaccinated deaths from COVID-19 vs deaths from post-vaccination patients. No need to be snarky.
    - Smithalicious 6y ago
      I don't think it was intended to be snarky, I had the same confusion
  - Viker 6y ago
    Compared to deaths from regular flu each year. In 2017 there were almost 80k deaths in the US due to flu. In 2018 around 40k. Yes currently its being reported that there has been nearly 500k deaths due to covid only. Note the only part. I smell number fuckery here...
    - oblio 6y ago
      Check out excess deaths.
    - midasuni 6y ago
      https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-covid-19-updates-tuesday/h_5da59c431e62a1c19c0899cfcf73d3ba https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-covid-19-up... More people have died from Covid-19 than in the past 5 flu seasons combined And that was October 45s into this video shows icu admissions each year for flu and covid. Covid of course coming with stringent lockdowns. https://www.ft.com/video/0cd6f9f9-664e-40f9-bad4-dde59d7c746c?playlist-name=editors-picks&playlist-offset=2 https://www.ft.com/video/0cd6f9f9-664e-40f9-bad4-dde59d7c746...
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - collyw 6y ago
        Flu testing has basically stopped. Many countries are recording every death within 20 days of a positive test as a covid death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHfOcGm5xiA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHfOcGm5xiA This shows overall deaths in a number of countries compared to the last 20 years for a number of countries. https://oronu.wordpress.com/2021/01/29/mortality-statistics/ https://oronu.wordpress.com/2021/01/29/mortality-statistics/
- terr-dav 6y ago
  The argument that the number of deaths in the US greater than the baseline from the previous year is roughly the same as the reported deaths where there was a covid infection, so our count seems accurate?
- Erlich_Bachman 6y ago
  The argument is that the numbers should be reported properly - with their context and baseline. For COVID cases in general, it can, it should and it is being applied in many statistics. It is an important number for understanding the disease.
georgeplusplus 6y ago
I’m sure if you were the one who got a bad blood clot from the vaccine you wouldn’t care about the numbers at large.
- egwor 6y ago
  If I got the vaccine and a blood clot, I'd want to understand it better. I'd want to understand the numbers at large to see whether it was caused by the vaccine. In the UK, the numbers need to be considered fully: * 30 million have received the first * 4 million have received the second Let's assume that 80% of folk got the AZ vaccine and that there's an equal chance of clot after each vaccine. So we're stating that the chance is 42 / 34 * e6 * 0.8. That means that the chance of it happening (from just those numbers) is 0.000001544117647. Since there are some many zeros, 0.000_001_544_117647. These numbers are tiny. Now compare that with the chance of death from Covid. For over 50 the chance of death is much higher (calculated by UK population number and deaths in population over over 50 from COVID). When I did the calcs yesterday on the Norwegian (iirc) numbers assuming about 30 per million (higher ratio than the UK numbers), it seemed that for the under 40's the chance of death from vaccine was slightly lower than dying from COVID. In the UK, COVID deaths might be considered higher than other countries due to differences in the way in which deaths are recorded. The next question to ask is what the likelihood of a similar blood clot within the general population if they'd not had the vaccine. From what I hear those chances are similarly low. From what I've read from doctors it sounds like the chances are higher than without the vaccine. Some joked that this could therefore be considered an anti-blood clotting medicine. Next put this into comparison with other medications, such as the contraceptive pill where chance of blots clots is 1:1000. The numbers at large matter.
  - georgeplusplus 6y ago
    My point is treating humans like numbers is not a way to get people to overcome a fear that this shot can potentially have a life threatening blood clot or other undocumented adverse effects being it’s so new. The numbers at large only matter when you’re the one who lands on the other side of fence without harm. Now, This wouldn’t be an issue if the world wasn’t moving to require a vaccination certificate since that person can make the choice themselves to balance the risk of the shot vs the adverse effects. But it’s becoming increasingly real that they risk being a second class citizen. It’s just plain wrong and completely anti freedom.
collyw 6y ago
Just like covid numbers are never put in perspective with deaths from other causes.
- fredophile 6y ago
  Covid has been in the US for about a year and killed over 500 000 people so we can approximate that to be about 500 000 in a year. The top 3 leading causes of death in the US in 2017 were heart disease (635 260), cancer (598 038), and accidents (161 374) [0]. That puts covid solidly in third place even if you assume the covid numbers are over counted. Heart disease and cancer accounted for over 20% of deaths each so that would make covid somewhere a little under 20% of deaths. Based on that, nearly 1 in 5 people who died in the last year in the US died of covid. [0] https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death

They conveniently don’t include any data about how these numbers compare to the population at large.

by xref 6y ago

They conveniently don’t include any data about how these numbers compare to the population at large.

In Germany incidence of CVST is around .3-.5/100,000 per year. (Higher in women under 50; some undiagnosed cases probably notwithstanding) Vaxzevira (the A-Z vaccine) has been in use for less than 3 months, ~2.2M doses have been given, resulting in 31 cases. So, worst case, you would have expected around 5 cases at this time. (Edit: changed acronym to English version, instead of the German one)

Toenex 6y ago
Does this comparison account for the vaccinations being administered to specific populations? In the UK it's been targeted at the most vulnerable & elderly.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
oliwarner 6y ago
Historical trends don't factor in the past 12m stay-at and work-from home spike, and related spike in sedentary living. Your natural incidence rate is whole-population but the vaccine rollout has been weighted to the oldest and least healthy. These may be the population that most of those cases happened in otherwise. You can assuage some of these things by looking at other vaccines, assuming they're given to the same demographics.

o_p 6y ago

The same argument can be applied to covid deaths itself.

xref 6y ago
Huh? The number of people who died of sars-ncov-2 compared to how many died of it...before it existed?
- manicdee 6y ago
  Unvaccinated deaths from COVID-19 vs deaths from post-vaccination patients. No need to be snarky.
  - Smithalicious 6y ago
    I don't think it was intended to be snarky, I had the same confusion
- Viker 6y ago
  Compared to deaths from regular flu each year. In 2017 there were almost 80k deaths in the US due to flu. In 2018 around 40k. Yes currently its being reported that there has been nearly 500k deaths due to covid only. Note the only part. I smell number fuckery here...
  - oblio 6y ago
    Check out excess deaths.
  - midasuni 6y ago
    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-covid-19-updates-tuesday/h_5da59c431e62a1c19c0899cfcf73d3ba https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-covid-19-up... More people have died from Covid-19 than in the past 5 flu seasons combined And that was October 45s into this video shows icu admissions each year for flu and covid. Covid of course coming with stringent lockdowns. https://www.ft.com/video/0cd6f9f9-664e-40f9-bad4-dde59d7c746c?playlist-name=editors-picks&playlist-offset=2 https://www.ft.com/video/0cd6f9f9-664e-40f9-bad4-dde59d7c746...
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - collyw 6y ago
      Flu testing has basically stopped. Many countries are recording every death within 20 days of a positive test as a covid death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHfOcGm5xiA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHfOcGm5xiA This shows overall deaths in a number of countries compared to the last 20 years for a number of countries. https://oronu.wordpress.com/2021/01/29/mortality-statistics/ https://oronu.wordpress.com/2021/01/29/mortality-statistics/
terr-dav 6y ago
The argument that the number of deaths in the US greater than the baseline from the previous year is roughly the same as the reported deaths where there was a covid infection, so our count seems accurate?
Erlich_Bachman 6y ago
The argument is that the numbers should be reported properly - with their context and baseline. For COVID cases in general, it can, it should and it is being applied in many statistics. It is an important number for understanding the disease.

georgeplusplus 6y ago

I’m sure if you were the one who got a bad blood clot from the vaccine you wouldn’t care about the numbers at large.

egwor 6y ago
If I got the vaccine and a blood clot, I'd want to understand it better. I'd want to understand the numbers at large to see whether it was caused by the vaccine. In the UK, the numbers need to be considered fully: * 30 million have received the first * 4 million have received the second Let's assume that 80% of folk got the AZ vaccine and that there's an equal chance of clot after each vaccine. So we're stating that the chance is 42 / 34 * e6 * 0.8. That means that the chance of it happening (from just those numbers) is 0.000001544117647. Since there are some many zeros, 0.000_001_544_117647. These numbers are tiny. Now compare that with the chance of death from Covid. For over 50 the chance of death is much higher (calculated by UK population number and deaths in population over over 50 from COVID). When I did the calcs yesterday on the Norwegian (iirc) numbers assuming about 30 per million (higher ratio than the UK numbers), it seemed that for the under 40's the chance of death from vaccine was slightly lower than dying from COVID. In the UK, COVID deaths might be considered higher than other countries due to differences in the way in which deaths are recorded. The next question to ask is what the likelihood of a similar blood clot within the general population if they'd not had the vaccine. From what I hear those chances are similarly low. From what I've read from doctors it sounds like the chances are higher than without the vaccine. Some joked that this could therefore be considered an anti-blood clotting medicine. Next put this into comparison with other medications, such as the contraceptive pill where chance of blots clots is 1:1000. The numbers at large matter.
- georgeplusplus 6y ago
  My point is treating humans like numbers is not a way to get people to overcome a fear that this shot can potentially have a life threatening blood clot or other undocumented adverse effects being it’s so new. The numbers at large only matter when you’re the one who lands on the other side of fence without harm. Now, This wouldn’t be an issue if the world wasn’t moving to require a vaccination certificate since that person can make the choice themselves to balance the risk of the shot vs the adverse effects. But it’s becoming increasingly real that they risk being a second class citizen. It’s just plain wrong and completely anti freedom.

collyw 6y ago

Just like covid numbers are never put in perspective with deaths from other causes.

fredophile 6y ago
Covid has been in the US for about a year and killed over 500 000 people so we can approximate that to be about 500 000 in a year. The top 3 leading causes of death in the US in 2017 were heart disease (635 260), cancer (598 038), and accidents (161 374) [0]. That puts covid solidly in third place even if you assume the covid numbers are over counted. Heart disease and cancer accounted for over 20% of deaths each so that would make covid somewhere a little under 20% of deaths. Based on that, nearly 1 in 5 people who died in the last year in the US died of covid. [0] https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death