3 ms·

I wish this article reported the denominator. 25 out of how many doses administered? What is the baseline % of people who should have gotten thrombosis naturall

I wish this article reported the denominator. 25 out of how many doses administered? What is the baseline % of people who should have gotten thrombosis naturally in the last 3 months (since doses started being administered). Perhaps the answer is that this is a real risk. But the public should be taught to think in relativistic ways. It's not that hard if every newspaper always did it as reinforcement.

ethbr0 6y ago
"In Norway, health officials have reported at least 6 of Jab’s 120,000 recipients of such cases, four of whom died. In Germany, 31 cases have been reported after 2.7 million vaccinations, 29 of which are women aged 20-63 and two men aged 36-57. Nine of them have died. By March 24, MHRA had received 22 reports of CVST and 8 reports of other thrombotic events with low platelets out of a total of 18.1 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine. This corresponds to approximately one case for every 600,000 recipients."
- davycro 6y ago
  Those numbers appear lower than the baseline prevalence of venous thrombosis in the general population [1]. Maybe the vaccine is protective? https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/data.html https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/data.html
  - davycro 6y ago
    No seriously. The estimated prevalence of venous thrombosis in the United States is 1:1000. The reported numbers of VTE after the vaccine would be normal in the general population. I am an emergency physician and I diagnose and manage PE and DVT several times per week. To me this seems much ado about nothing.
ttul 6y ago
It’s 8 incidents out of 18.1 million vaccinations according to the UK government’s own report. The prevalence generally is estimated to be between 2 and 5 per million per year [1] in a 2016 paper. Given the population prevalence, you’d expect 36 to 100 incidents in the vaccinated population. Yet they found only 8. I’m not qualified to say whether that means anything. [1] https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.013617 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.0...
- ttul 6y ago
  Correcting myself: the UK reported 22 incidents of CVST and 8 of other clotting events.
  - ars 6y ago
    Edit your post instead of correcting yourself. Also, this is a very specific and rare type of clotting event - don't compare it to clotting events in general.
    - ttul 6y ago
      It was not editable.
    - ttul 6y ago
      And I did mention the incidence of CVST, not just general clotting.
- Strom 6y ago
  When comparing to the baseline, we need to divde the per year stats to some shorter time period, because these AstraZeneca related cases happen pretty quickly after the jab, which means that the observation period isn't a full year. It's also worth looking at the age distribution. The cases that are thought to be linked with AstraZeneca are with younger people. I wonder how that compares to the baseline thrombosis age distribution.
  - vmception 6y ago
    In full 3-stage clinical trials, would this cause passage with a disclaimer about side effects, or would this cause failure? I don't have enough information about this sector to tell
    - AstralStorm 6y ago
      Phase 3 trials are typically not big enough to find this level of risk. It took millions of jabs to find a slightly elevated risk, and this I think has to be compared to some other commonly applied vaccine, not placebo. If the risk is "very rare", like less than 1 in 10000, then it warrants a label and maybe precautionary dose of aspirin.

ethbr0 6y ago

"In Norway, health officials have reported at least 6 of Jab’s 120,000 recipients of such cases, four of whom died. In Germany, 31 cases have been reported after 2.7 million vaccinations, 29 of which are women aged 20-63 and two men aged 36-57. Nine of them have died. By March 24, MHRA had received 22 reports of CVST and 8 reports of other thrombotic events with low platelets out of a total of 18.1 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine. This corresponds to approximately one case for every 600,000 recipients."

davycro 6y ago
Those numbers appear lower than the baseline prevalence of venous thrombosis in the general population [1]. Maybe the vaccine is protective? https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/data.html https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/data.html
- davycro 6y ago
  No seriously. The estimated prevalence of venous thrombosis in the United States is 1:1000. The reported numbers of VTE after the vaccine would be normal in the general population. I am an emergency physician and I diagnose and manage PE and DVT several times per week. To me this seems much ado about nothing.

ttul 6y ago

It’s 8 incidents out of 18.1 million vaccinations according to the UK government’s own report. The prevalence generally is estimated to be between 2 and 5 per million per year [1] in a 2016 paper. Given the population prevalence, you’d expect 36 to 100 incidents in the vaccinated population. Yet they found only 8. I’m not qualified to say whether that means anything. [1] https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.013617 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.0...

ttul 6y ago
Correcting myself: the UK reported 22 incidents of CVST and 8 of other clotting events.
- ars 6y ago
  Edit your post instead of correcting yourself. Also, this is a very specific and rare type of clotting event - don't compare it to clotting events in general.
  - ttul 6y ago
    It was not editable.
  - ttul 6y ago
    And I did mention the incidence of CVST, not just general clotting.
Strom 6y ago
When comparing to the baseline, we need to divde the per year stats to some shorter time period, because these AstraZeneca related cases happen pretty quickly after the jab, which means that the observation period isn't a full year. It's also worth looking at the age distribution. The cases that are thought to be linked with AstraZeneca are with younger people. I wonder how that compares to the baseline thrombosis age distribution.
- vmception 6y ago
  In full 3-stage clinical trials, would this cause passage with a disclaimer about side effects, or would this cause failure? I don't have enough information about this sector to tell
  - AstralStorm 6y ago
    Phase 3 trials are typically not big enough to find this level of risk. It took millions of jabs to find a slightly elevated risk, and this I think has to be compared to some other commonly applied vaccine, not placebo. If the risk is "very rare", like less than 1 in 10000, then it warrants a label and maybe precautionary dose of aspirin.