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> The fewer the mutations, the fewer the vaccine resistant variants. > The fewer the vaccine resistant variants, the fewer the need for new vaccines Aren’t you

by peytn 6y ago

> The fewer the mutations, the fewer the vaccine resistant variants. > The fewer the vaccine resistant variants, the fewer the need for new vaccines Aren’t you committing a logical error here? There will need to be new vaccines as long as there is at least one escape variant. The “fewer the need” is really a binary 0 or 1, and you haven’t done anything to show that your “getting vaccinated and retaining some discipline until the collapse” gets us from a 1 to a 0. There’s a time component as well. But yeah, it’s a neat story that gets shots in arms.

feanaro 6y ago
> The “fewer the need” is really a binary 0 or 1 I can see several ways in which this is not true. For one, several different variants might need to be handled with several different vaccines. Vaccines might also not work perfectly on a variant, but they might confer some protection, leading to overall less total viral particles produced, reducing the probability of an effective mutation.
bmurphy1976 6y ago
Mutations are happening all the time anyway, but the rate of mutation matters. This is all one big game of statistics. Plagues end quickly all the time once conditions are no longer able to support it. Take a look at the current mouse plague in eastern Australia right now for a real world example. It's happened before but each time it collapsed as quickly as it came. Statistically we will cross the threshold where the ecosystem is no longer favorable for the spread of covid and the plague will collapse. It will move back into the background noise just like the millions of other potential diseases that aren't currently causing a global pandemic. The real danger are holdouts who can't or refuse to get vaccinated for whatever reason. If there's enough of them and they live close enough together to support a viable ecosystem that very well could provide a reservoir for covid to continue thriving and causing problems until they achieve herd immunity.

by peytn 6y ago

feanaro 6y ago

> The “fewer the need” is really a binary 0 or 1 I can see several ways in which this is not true. For one, several different variants might need to be handled with several different vaccines. Vaccines might also not work perfectly on a variant, but they might confer some protection, leading to overall less total viral particles produced, reducing the probability of an effective mutation.

bmurphy1976 6y ago

Mutations are happening all the time anyway, but the rate of mutation matters. This is all one big game of statistics. Plagues end quickly all the time once conditions are no longer able to support it. Take a look at the current mouse plague in eastern Australia right now for a real world example. It's happened before but each time it collapsed as quickly as it came. Statistically we will cross the threshold where the ecosystem is no longer favorable for the spread of covid and the plague will collapse. It will move back into the background noise just like the millions of other potential diseases that aren't currently causing a global pandemic. The real danger are holdouts who can't or refuse to get vaccinated for whatever reason. If there's enough of them and they live close enough together to support a viable ecosystem that very well could provide a reservoir for covid to continue thriving and causing problems until they achieve herd immunity.