The eviction moratorium is overblown. Forbearance on mortgages is an extremely cheap way to keep landlords from feeling the pain, and lenders have little upside

The eviction moratorium is overblown. Forbearance on mortgages is an extremely cheap way to keep landlords from feeling the pain, and lenders have little upside and much downside from mass selling among landlords when financing is so cheap nowadays. Anyway NY state is $61b estimated lost rent which is comparable to student loan debt (like $40b), neither of these things matter as much as people think they do. Why? These people are already in default. The renters who need the moratorium were already “in default,” you just didn’t account for it yet. To the degree that the market has known NYC and LA renters’ rent was “too damn high” for decades now, it’s hard to see how people predictably on the verge of default (ie economic default) now having to live somewhere they can afford (ie accounting default) will cause a crash. If anything REITs prices will rise as information (ie who is really capable of paying rents) flows into the system. The renters who can actually afford to live in NYC and LA are richer, and the people who move out will be richer than many people where they’re moving to. Another way to look at this is that CDOs were responsible for the 2008 crash. Not people taking mortgages they can’t afford. Constantly economic crashes are the result of derivatives. My feeling is that we will find out what toxic derivative will crash the economy for real when someone takes a long look at PIPEs for SPAC transactions. Another place I would look for nasty derivatives is untaxed cash of large corporations in offshore accounts, especially of the major tech companies.