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I've been reading about the "imminent" collapse of the SF housing bubble for essentially my entire adult life. Even the actual housing bubble implosion in '07 b

I've been reading about the "imminent" collapse of the SF housing bubble for essentially my entire adult life. Even the actual housing bubble implosion in '07 barely put a dent in it.

trimbo 6y ago
People have been complaining about SF real estate prices since at least 1846. [1] [1] - https://books.google.com/books?id=GiAa8pLrSTIC&lpg=PA45&lr&pg=PA62#v=onepage&q&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=GiAa8pLrSTIC&lpg=PA45&lr&p...
- HPsquared 6y ago
  I guess the prices could collapse a fair bit and still be overpriced.
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    Yeah, especially when you consider that prices just 30 minutes away from SF in any direction are anywhere from 20-60% lower than in SF.
    - refurb 6y ago
      Where? 30 mins is still in Napa to the North, Oakland to the East and San Mateo to the South. 20%? Maybe in a few pockets. 60%? Never seen it. Even the crummy parts of Daly City the homes are $1M now.
      - pmiller2 6y ago
        Current median home price in SF is $1.3M. 60% of that is $780k. You can definitely buy for that in Albany, Richmond, or El Cerrito. The nice neighborhoods in Richmond are basically in the south part of the city, anyway, which cuts down the distance. Unless you're talking about 30 minutes out in hardcore rush hour traffic, these cities will definitely fit the bill. Daly City fits, since $1M is 77% of $1.3M -- not that I'd particularly like living in Daly City, but it is 23% less than buying in SF. San Mateo median price is the same as SF, so, obviously, you don't look there for home bargains. Seriously, just troll Redfin or Realtor.com sometime. Edit: my bad re: 60%. I should be looking at $520k homes. There are definitely places in worthwhile neighborhoods in that range in Richmond. I've seen them. But, if you revise that number down to 40%, a lot of stuff opens up. So, 20-40% is a better range than 20-60%.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
baybal2 6y ago
A more extreme example: 1/5 of all housing stock in China are vacant concrete boxes, and people are still complaining about apartment prices reaching to the sky. Imagine cities both 20 times the size of SF, and being one fifth vacant.
- ladberg 6y ago
  Vacant != on the market. I know a few people living in china, all of whom own more apartments than they can use (in the same neighborhoods no less, so it's not even vacation homes). They do it because it's the best way to invest their savings, so new apartments are usually spoken for before they're even built and often unoccupied until they're sold again.
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    Is it legal for private citizens to rent out vacant housing units in China? If so, that doesn't surprise me very much. Every landlord has more housing units than they can use.
    - ladberg 6y ago
      Yes it's legal but the people I've talked to don't do it. There's a stigma of renting over buying so the rent/home value ratio is way off compared to the US. Renting out the homes wouldn't really net much profit overall and they don't want to deal with being a landlord anyway, so they let the apartments sit empty.
  - ricardobayes 6y ago
    It is impossible to get married in China if the bride doesn't own property. The family won't allow it.
- BobbyJo 6y ago
  To be fair, housing in China is used as a savings vehicle. They have few, if any, social safety nets available to them, and don't trust the stock market. Housing in the US doesn't have nearly the same speculative force behind it.
refurb 6y ago
SF homes dropped 30% in 2008. Edit: Actually 44% to be precise. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

I've been reading about the "imminent" collapse of the SF housing bubble for essentially my entire adult life. Even the actual housing bubble implosion in '07 barely put a dent in it.

trimbo 6y ago

People have been complaining about SF real estate prices since at least 1846. [1] [1] - https://books.google.com/books?id=GiAa8pLrSTIC&lpg=PA45&lr&pg=PA62#v=onepage&q&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=GiAa8pLrSTIC&lpg=PA45&lr&p...

HPsquared 6y ago
I guess the prices could collapse a fair bit and still be overpriced.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  Yeah, especially when you consider that prices just 30 minutes away from SF in any direction are anywhere from 20-60% lower than in SF.
  - refurb 6y ago
    Where? 30 mins is still in Napa to the North, Oakland to the East and San Mateo to the South. 20%? Maybe in a few pockets. 60%? Never seen it. Even the crummy parts of Daly City the homes are $1M now.
    - pmiller2 6y ago
      Current median home price in SF is $1.3M. 60% of that is $780k. You can definitely buy for that in Albany, Richmond, or El Cerrito. The nice neighborhoods in Richmond are basically in the south part of the city, anyway, which cuts down the distance. Unless you're talking about 30 minutes out in hardcore rush hour traffic, these cities will definitely fit the bill. Daly City fits, since $1M is 77% of $1.3M -- not that I'd particularly like living in Daly City, but it is 23% less than buying in SF. San Mateo median price is the same as SF, so, obviously, you don't look there for home bargains. Seriously, just troll Redfin or Realtor.com sometime. Edit: my bad re: 60%. I should be looking at $520k homes. There are definitely places in worthwhile neighborhoods in that range in Richmond. I've seen them. But, if you revise that number down to 40%, a lot of stuff opens up. So, 20-40% is a better range than 20-60%.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

baybal2 6y ago

A more extreme example: 1/5 of all housing stock in China are vacant concrete boxes, and people are still complaining about apartment prices reaching to the sky. Imagine cities both 20 times the size of SF, and being one fifth vacant.

ladberg 6y ago
Vacant != on the market. I know a few people living in china, all of whom own more apartments than they can use (in the same neighborhoods no less, so it's not even vacation homes). They do it because it's the best way to invest their savings, so new apartments are usually spoken for before they're even built and often unoccupied until they're sold again.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  Is it legal for private citizens to rent out vacant housing units in China? If so, that doesn't surprise me very much. Every landlord has more housing units than they can use.
  - ladberg 6y ago
    Yes it's legal but the people I've talked to don't do it. There's a stigma of renting over buying so the rent/home value ratio is way off compared to the US. Renting out the homes wouldn't really net much profit overall and they don't want to deal with being a landlord anyway, so they let the apartments sit empty.
- ricardobayes 6y ago
  It is impossible to get married in China if the bride doesn't own property. The family won't allow it.
BobbyJo 6y ago
To be fair, housing in China is used as a savings vehicle. They have few, if any, social safety nets available to them, and don't trust the stock market. Housing in the US doesn't have nearly the same speculative force behind it.

refurb 6y ago

SF homes dropped 30% in 2008. Edit: Actually 44% to be precise. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA