4 ms·
There have been unsubstantiated rumors for years that the Taiwanese military has outfitted TSMC fabs with explosives that can be rigged to go off in the event o
by ohazi 6y ago
There have been unsubstantiated rumors for years that the Taiwanese military has outfitted TSMC fabs with explosives that can be rigged to go off in the event of a mainland invasion in order to deny China access to TSMC capabilities.
The rumor doesn't actually need to be true in order to act as a deterrent -- it just needs to be leaked to Chinese officials and considered credible. It also assumes that access to TSMC is a strong motivation for an invasion, which may or may not be true.
In any case, the answer to your question depends on whether this is true, and whether the explosives are actually used. If the fabs are destroyed, it'll set the world back by at least a decade.
So if you thought the chip shortage was bad today...
On the other hand, if it's not true (or if it is, but the fabs aren't destroyed for whatever reason), and operations continue despite an invasion, I can definitely imagine a scenario where the rest of the world just sort of shrugs and goes with it. Kind of a horrifying thought, but what are the alternatives? Attack China? They have nukes. Everyone will condemn China, sure. Then China will get upset and claim that we're all "hurting the feelings of the Chinese people" [1], and that'll be the end of it.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurting_the_feelings_of_the_Chinese_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurting_the_feelings_of_the_Ch...
- dageshi 6y agoThe chinese leadership/official position is that Taiwan is part of China. They don't want to invade and retake it because they want TSMC's chips, they want to retake it because they think it's a rebellious province that needs to be brought to heel.
- ohazi 6y agoRight, which may mean that this threat is meaningless, but the rumors are still there, and the outcome is probably what the rest of the world actually cares about when considering the situation.
- hosh 6y agoThe dynamic between China and Taiwan is complex, with TSMC being only one factor. China has its hands in many pies, and it spans the economic, historical, cultural, and military. The best metaphor I have heard that sums this up was that if this were a Go game, Taiwan is a Ko fight between China and US.
- dirtyid 6y agoTSMC still requires inputs from global supply chains to function, so doesn't matter of PRC captures it intact, disassembles fabs and reshores on mainland. US can sanction down the supply chain to kill fabs anyway. In the meantime, it's a source for uncomfortable détente between US/CN/TW. If CN were forced to move in 10/15 year timescale is "quarantining" Taiwan as summarized in another recent Greer article: All Measures Short of a Cross Straits Invasion [0], and hold access to TSMC hostage. Essentially PRC can blockade TW ports and airspace and exploit period where TSMC production still has substantial leverage, and I can see uncomfortable détente continuing to ensure continued supply of chips. [0] https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2021/03/all-measures-short-of-cross-straits.html https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2021/03/all-measures-sho...