5 ms·

This is how the flu shot works. I don't see how this would be that big of a deal, we get shots for previous pandemic strains every year.

bcrosby95 6y ago
> we get shots for previous pandemic strains every year. That's not exactly how the flu shot works. They make an educated guess as to which strain will become most widespread, then develop the corresponding vaccine. Years that the flu shot isn't as effective is when they guess the wrong strain.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  Yep, and next year is going to be a total shot in the dark for people formulating flu vaccines. Nobody's getting flu because COVID precautions are effective against flu, too. But, pigs and birds are, and their flu viruses jump over to us pretty readily. My guess is that next year's flu season is going to be a lot worse than more recent ones because of this.
  - yellowapple 6y ago
    On the bright side, the practice we've (hopefully) had with masks, hand washing, and personal space should hopefully carry over to flu seasons in the future. If it does get severe, then we know what to do. Whether we do it, though, is another question altogether.
    - pmiller2 6y ago
      Yeah, I wouldn't count on people actually doing it, either. Especially when a large segment of the population is convinced that mask mandates are a form of tyranny.
      - selectodude 6y ago
        For obvious reasons, you're not going to see mask mandates for flu season. It's simply not contagious enough. I think there will be more social pressure to wear masks when you're not feeling well and an increased acceptance of staying home when sick though.
        pmiller2 6y ago
        Sure, but do you really think people who won't wear a mask when it's literally against the law not to will wear one voluntarily?
        tgsovlerkhgsel 6y ago
        I think it'll be more a matter of "I don't want to get sick and I'm your manager, so {put on a mask,stay at home until you're no longer sick} or stay at home forever".
        yellowapple 6y ago
        This is indeed how it works for the healthcare industry; when I was doing hospital IT, my choices during flu season were either 1) vaccinate, 2) wear a mask, or 3) find a new line of work. I picked the first one.
  - tgsovlerkhgsel 6y ago
    My guess is that next year's flu season is cancelled too. It doesn't take much to push the R from slightly above 1 to slightly below 1. Just putting a mask on half the symptomatic infected people (or even better, getting them to stay at home) would probably do the trick. Also, the flu has to start from a very low level. Might miss this flu season completely.
- saalweachter 6y ago
  Hmmm, my understanding is that the flu vaccines are basically built on the seasonality of the flu -- the southern & northern hemisphere's flu seasons run six months opposite each other, so you basically take the strains that were biggest in the southern hemisphere during its season and vaccinate the northern against them, and vice-versa six months later. Do we have any sign yet on whether the COVID-season would be expected to run on a similar schedule?
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Not really, no. The vaccines developed a year ago are mostly effective enough against the strains circulating now though, so it may work out for the better. (the "spike" that the vaccines target is important to the virus, so changes to it often make it much less infectious or whatever, and we don't really know how much room is has to both escape the vaccine triggered immunity and stay highly infectious)
- kmonsen 6y ago
  It is a bit different now because mRNA vaccines are much quicker to develop. It is somewhat realistic we can keep having up to date vaccines.
BiteCode_dev 6y ago
Having to pay a tax to a private company to get a mandatory yearly medical procedure is not my idea of fun. So now you get the flu and covid shot every year. Next 5 years, new bug, new vaccine, you do three ? And of course we have no long term data on cumulative shots effects, or interractions between various shots together, with other medicines, etc. Doing anything like this systematically should be though out carefully. Doing my first 10 vaccines felt like buying software licence in the 90'. I fear that the new ones will be like those sucky Saas subscriptions.
- 2muchcoffeeman 6y ago
  Can someone enlighten me on the logic of this sort of thinking?

bcrosby95 6y ago

> we get shots for previous pandemic strains every year. That's not exactly how the flu shot works. They make an educated guess as to which strain will become most widespread, then develop the corresponding vaccine. Years that the flu shot isn't as effective is when they guess the wrong strain.

pmiller2 6y ago
Yep, and next year is going to be a total shot in the dark for people formulating flu vaccines. Nobody's getting flu because COVID precautions are effective against flu, too. But, pigs and birds are, and their flu viruses jump over to us pretty readily. My guess is that next year's flu season is going to be a lot worse than more recent ones because of this.
- yellowapple 6y ago
  On the bright side, the practice we've (hopefully) had with masks, hand washing, and personal space should hopefully carry over to flu seasons in the future. If it does get severe, then we know what to do. Whether we do it, though, is another question altogether.
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    Yeah, I wouldn't count on people actually doing it, either. Especially when a large segment of the population is convinced that mask mandates are a form of tyranny.
    - selectodude 6y ago
      For obvious reasons, you're not going to see mask mandates for flu season. It's simply not contagious enough. I think there will be more social pressure to wear masks when you're not feeling well and an increased acceptance of staying home when sick though.
      - pmiller2 6y ago
        Sure, but do you really think people who won't wear a mask when it's literally against the law not to will wear one voluntarily?
        tgsovlerkhgsel 6y ago
        I think it'll be more a matter of "I don't want to get sick and I'm your manager, so {put on a mask,stay at home until you're no longer sick} or stay at home forever".
        yellowapple 6y ago
        This is indeed how it works for the healthcare industry; when I was doing hospital IT, my choices during flu season were either 1) vaccinate, 2) wear a mask, or 3) find a new line of work. I picked the first one.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 6y ago
  My guess is that next year's flu season is cancelled too. It doesn't take much to push the R from slightly above 1 to slightly below 1. Just putting a mask on half the symptomatic infected people (or even better, getting them to stay at home) would probably do the trick. Also, the flu has to start from a very low level. Might miss this flu season completely.
saalweachter 6y ago
Hmmm, my understanding is that the flu vaccines are basically built on the seasonality of the flu -- the southern & northern hemisphere's flu seasons run six months opposite each other, so you basically take the strains that were biggest in the southern hemisphere during its season and vaccinate the northern against them, and vice-versa six months later. Do we have any sign yet on whether the COVID-season would be expected to run on a similar schedule?
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Not really, no. The vaccines developed a year ago are mostly effective enough against the strains circulating now though, so it may work out for the better. (the "spike" that the vaccines target is important to the virus, so changes to it often make it much less infectious or whatever, and we don't really know how much room is has to both escape the vaccine triggered immunity and stay highly infectious)
kmonsen 6y ago
It is a bit different now because mRNA vaccines are much quicker to develop. It is somewhat realistic we can keep having up to date vaccines.

BiteCode_dev 6y ago

Having to pay a tax to a private company to get a mandatory yearly medical procedure is not my idea of fun. So now you get the flu and covid shot every year. Next 5 years, new bug, new vaccine, you do three ? And of course we have no long term data on cumulative shots effects, or interractions between various shots together, with other medicines, etc. Doing anything like this systematically should be though out carefully. Doing my first 10 vaccines felt like buying software licence in the 90'. I fear that the new ones will be like those sucky Saas subscriptions.

2muchcoffeeman 6y ago
Can someone enlighten me on the logic of this sort of thinking?