5 ms·

I don't see how that makes May 15 and beyond look any worse. A wave now means more organic immunity as well as more tranmission in the short term. But with so m

I don't see how that makes May 15 and beyond look any worse. A wave now means more organic immunity as well as more tranmission in the short term. But with so many vulnerable people already vaccinated, and so much organic immunity already, do you really think it will be a six-week-long wave? Probably not. And in 6 weeks, that just means millions more will be vaccinated and younger people will have even more organic immunity. In other words, there may be another surge, but it will probably be the last one, and probably over by May 15. Again, non expert, don't cough on people, etc.

mikeyouse 6y ago
My friend's mom was just admitted to a hospital on the East side of Michigan with really, really bad Covid. Opening day for baseball is today, cases are surging like crazy and everyone is just pretending like it's over. I hope that things improve in 6 weeks, but I'm really pessimistic at the moment.
- sharken 6y ago
  Michigan is at 30% vaccinated with at least one dose according to https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/michigan/26/ https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracke... So things are better than in most places and will continually get better.
  - mikeyouse 6y ago
    Yeah, it will eventually get better, but I have family who are physicians who are swamped again and friends with relatives in ERs and ICUs.. Hard to be too optimistic at the moment. NYTimes' latest concurs; https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea... > Michigan has more recent cases per capita than any other state, and has seen them soar in recent weeks, to more than 5,600 cases a day from about 1,000 on Feb. 21. The nation’s top five metro areas in recent cases per capita are all in Michigan: Jackson, Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Monroe. ... > Health officials partly attributed the rapid rise in cases to the B.1.1.7 variant that was originally identified in Britain and is widespread in Michigan. But they have also observed a broader return to prepandemic life seen in a relaxing of mask wearing, social distancing and other strategies meant to slow the spread of the virus — many weeks before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated. On Thursday, Michigan officials announced that they had identified their first case of the P.1 variant, which has spread widely in Brazil and has now been found in more than 20 U.S. states. ... > Dr. Joneigh S. Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said on Tuesday that 50 percent of state residents over 65 were fully vaccinated, a sign of progress that the most vulnerable population is closer to protection from Covid-19. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities.
fredophile 6y ago
More people getting covid means more chances of a mutation that makes it spread easier or is resistant to current vaccines. A surge now is a bad thing.
- hammock 6y ago
  What is the likelihood that any given mutation increases vs. decreases contagiousness or resistance?
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    It doesn’t matter how likely any individual mutation is to increase transmissibility or resistance. We won’t ever see the ones that decrease transmissibility or resistance, because they’ll be outcompeted by the Brand X virus, as well as any nastier mutants.
    - hammock 6y ago
      Then why has it taken this long to see a global pandemic? Surely it must matter to some extent how likely any given mutation is to increase transmissibility or resistance.
  - unilynx 6y ago
    That's probably random, but the mutations that increase contagiousness will be the ones surviving natural selection.
    - hammock 6y ago
      I recall a general principle in virology that given a virus found in the wild, the more contagious it is, the less harm or death it causes. (If it killed every host it would have no long-term survivability)
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - 6y ago

mikeyouse 6y ago

My friend's mom was just admitted to a hospital on the East side of Michigan with really, really bad Covid. Opening day for baseball is today, cases are surging like crazy and everyone is just pretending like it's over. I hope that things improve in 6 weeks, but I'm really pessimistic at the moment.

sharken 6y ago
Michigan is at 30% vaccinated with at least one dose according to https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/michigan/26/ https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracke... So things are better than in most places and will continually get better.
- mikeyouse 6y ago
  Yeah, it will eventually get better, but I have family who are physicians who are swamped again and friends with relatives in ERs and ICUs.. Hard to be too optimistic at the moment. NYTimes' latest concurs; https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea... > Michigan has more recent cases per capita than any other state, and has seen them soar in recent weeks, to more than 5,600 cases a day from about 1,000 on Feb. 21. The nation’s top five metro areas in recent cases per capita are all in Michigan: Jackson, Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Monroe. ... > Health officials partly attributed the rapid rise in cases to the B.1.1.7 variant that was originally identified in Britain and is widespread in Michigan. But they have also observed a broader return to prepandemic life seen in a relaxing of mask wearing, social distancing and other strategies meant to slow the spread of the virus — many weeks before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated. On Thursday, Michigan officials announced that they had identified their first case of the P.1 variant, which has spread widely in Brazil and has now been found in more than 20 U.S. states. ... > Dr. Joneigh S. Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said on Tuesday that 50 percent of state residents over 65 were fully vaccinated, a sign of progress that the most vulnerable population is closer to protection from Covid-19. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities.

fredophile 6y ago

More people getting covid means more chances of a mutation that makes it spread easier or is resistant to current vaccines. A surge now is a bad thing.

hammock 6y ago
What is the likelihood that any given mutation increases vs. decreases contagiousness or resistance?
- pmiller2 6y ago
  It doesn’t matter how likely any individual mutation is to increase transmissibility or resistance. We won’t ever see the ones that decrease transmissibility or resistance, because they’ll be outcompeted by the Brand X virus, as well as any nastier mutants.
  - hammock 6y ago
    Then why has it taken this long to see a global pandemic? Surely it must matter to some extent how likely any given mutation is to increase transmissibility or resistance.
- unilynx 6y ago
  That's probably random, but the mutations that increase contagiousness will be the ones surviving natural selection.
  - hammock 6y ago
    I recall a general principle in virology that given a virus found in the wild, the more contagious it is, the less harm or death it causes. (If it killed every host it would have no long-term survivability)
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- 6y ago