4 ms·

Sure, a new wave of cases, but will it translate to deaths? My understanding is that most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%.

hammock 6y ago
>most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%. In the US, most (59%) deaths come from people aged 75+ according to CDC. People aged 75+ make up roughly 12% of the population.
tyingq 6y ago
"we have vaccinated over 30%" Some places are at much lower percentages. "Fully vaccinated" varies from ~12% in Utah to ~24% in New Mexico. 17% overall for the US.
- flatline 6y ago
  New Mexico is currently at 48.4% of the eligible population with at least one dose, which recent research indicates is at least 80% effective. Research also indicates that the non-eligible population - children - are not as likely to spread or contract the disease. By mid-May I expect many more states to lift mask mandates, for venues to open at near 100% capacity, etc. People will still be dying from COVID, 80-90% effective still leaves a lot of people vulnerable. But that has not stopped us so far!
  - Baeocystin 6y ago
    The 80-90% numbers are for symptomatic Covid. The protection against hospitalization/death seems to be close to 100%, which is fantastic news.
    - kmonsen 6y ago
      Yeah, people are reading the effective number wrong. It is very close to 100% in protecting against hospitalization/death, which is what we really care about. If we could vaccinate 100% (perhaps at some time interval), this would be over.
      - roywiggins 6y ago
        I think it's likely that the real-world protection against death is actually lower than 100%- immune compromised people exist, and are liable to be comparatively poorly protected. And they're not part of the big efficacy trials. Ideally you can protect them by suppressing the virus by herd immunity, which I think is actually a viable prospect with these vaccines.
        mapme 6y ago
        Yes, this was seen in the Israel Pfizer data that death protection was around 93%. There are a number of public data points from Israel with sample sizes that dwarf anything done in trials. Shame it’s not mentioned more as it’s incredibly robust (positive) evidence
    - mapme 6y ago
      CDC study from this week showed 90% effectiveness when doing proactive weekly testing regardless of if presenting symptoms. That is the best data I’ve seen as evidence it prevents even a symptomatic cases as a very high efficacy. Israel data claimed it was highly effective on a symptomatic but their methodology was off (for how they defined a symptomatic) https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm...
  - ghaff 6y ago
    You can quibble about the date, but there's every reason to believe that as the US eases into summer, restrictions/mandates will largely fade away and it will be the Roaring 20s all over again. I fully expect that not everyone is going to be happy about that but it seems inevitable. International travel without restrictions will almost certainly take longer.
- azernik 6y ago
  Point being, we've focused vaccination on the most susceptible groups. Vaccinating even 15% of the total population means we've probably vaccinated ~90% of people aged 75+ (with that number being limited by health conditions that contraindicate vaccination).
- Forbo 6y ago
  Utah is saying they're at 22% fully vaccinated according to their site: https://coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine https://coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine
  - tyingq 6y ago
    Interesting. I got my number from google (google for coronavirus immunization stats), which says it gets its data from "ourworldindata"[1]. [1] https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/data/vaccinations/us_state_vaccinations.csv https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/dat... Google screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY

hammock 6y ago

>most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%. In the US, most (59%) deaths come from people aged 75+ according to CDC. People aged 75+ make up roughly 12% of the population.

tyingq 6y ago

"we have vaccinated over 30%" Some places are at much lower percentages. "Fully vaccinated" varies from ~12% in Utah to ~24% in New Mexico. 17% overall for the US.

flatline 6y ago
New Mexico is currently at 48.4% of the eligible population with at least one dose, which recent research indicates is at least 80% effective. Research also indicates that the non-eligible population - children - are not as likely to spread or contract the disease. By mid-May I expect many more states to lift mask mandates, for venues to open at near 100% capacity, etc. People will still be dying from COVID, 80-90% effective still leaves a lot of people vulnerable. But that has not stopped us so far!
- Baeocystin 6y ago
  The 80-90% numbers are for symptomatic Covid. The protection against hospitalization/death seems to be close to 100%, which is fantastic news.
  - kmonsen 6y ago
    Yeah, people are reading the effective number wrong. It is very close to 100% in protecting against hospitalization/death, which is what we really care about. If we could vaccinate 100% (perhaps at some time interval), this would be over.
    - roywiggins 6y ago
      I think it's likely that the real-world protection against death is actually lower than 100%- immune compromised people exist, and are liable to be comparatively poorly protected. And they're not part of the big efficacy trials. Ideally you can protect them by suppressing the virus by herd immunity, which I think is actually a viable prospect with these vaccines.
      - mapme 6y ago
        Yes, this was seen in the Israel Pfizer data that death protection was around 93%. There are a number of public data points from Israel with sample sizes that dwarf anything done in trials. Shame it’s not mentioned more as it’s incredibly robust (positive) evidence
  - mapme 6y ago
    CDC study from this week showed 90% effectiveness when doing proactive weekly testing regardless of if presenting symptoms. That is the best data I’ve seen as evidence it prevents even a symptomatic cases as a very high efficacy. Israel data claimed it was highly effective on a symptomatic but their methodology was off (for how they defined a symptomatic) https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm...
- ghaff 6y ago
  You can quibble about the date, but there's every reason to believe that as the US eases into summer, restrictions/mandates will largely fade away and it will be the Roaring 20s all over again. I fully expect that not everyone is going to be happy about that but it seems inevitable. International travel without restrictions will almost certainly take longer.
azernik 6y ago
Point being, we've focused vaccination on the most susceptible groups. Vaccinating even 15% of the total population means we've probably vaccinated ~90% of people aged 75+ (with that number being limited by health conditions that contraindicate vaccination).
Forbo 6y ago
Utah is saying they're at 22% fully vaccinated according to their site: https://coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine https://coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine
- tyingq 6y ago
  Interesting. I got my number from google (google for coronavirus immunization stats), which says it gets its data from "ourworldindata"[1]. [1] https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/data/vaccinations/us_state_vaccinations.csv https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/dat... Google screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY