3 ms·

> I like to think of it as I am ~1/10th as likely to get the disease as I would be if i had not been vaccinated. > Is this what they mean in this? Yes, that's

by thamer 6y ago

> I like to think of it as I am ~1/10th as likely to get the disease as I would be if i had not been vaccinated. > Is this what they mean in this? Yes, that's what they mean. And even for the vaccines that are ~60-70% effective, all of them have so far been 100% effective in preventing hospitalization and death. It's not binary, the vaccines don't make you completely immune to this virus but greatly reduce the impact it has. I thought this video explained it well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A

makomk 6y ago
As I understand it, it turns out that none of the vaccines are 100% effective in preventing hospitalization and death, it's just really hard to measure this accurately in the kind of studies used for vaccine approval because there aren't enough people in them, especially people at high risk. The actual figure from the various large-scale rollouts is closer to 80% I think?
- alistairSH 6y ago
  Yeah, the language I've seen is usually something like "...there were 0 deaths in the test group..." Which most people will read as "100% effective in preventing deaths" but technically there's no specific claim at preventing deaths - the "0 deaths" is effectively an anecdote.
  - Spivak 6y ago
    I would assume that even a claim about being 100% effective has some asterisks like “has a strong enough immune system” where “strong enough” means “unless you’ve already been diagnosed with having a weak immune system you’re fine.”
- thamer 6y ago
  It's quite possible that some people will eventually contract COVID-19 and die from it, even several weeks after getting their last immunization shot (supposedly at a point when they're fully protected). It just didn't happen in any of the trials. If anyone wants to look at the raw phase 3 numbers: Pfizer numbers: 43,448 participants received injections (21,720 the vaccine and 21,728 the placebo); 8 cases of COVID-19 in the vaccinated group and 162 in the placebo group, 9 were severe (8 of those in the placebo group). Pfizer study: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=featured_home https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=fe... Moderna numbers: 30,420 participants, evenly split with 15,210 in each group, over 96% got both injections. There were 185 symptomatic cases in the placebo group and 11 in the vaccinated group. 30 participants had severe cases including one causing death: all were in the placebo group. Moderna study: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2035389 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2035389
  - mapme 6y ago
    Israel has much more robust data than the trials for pfizer (monster study group size of 600k per group). They have seen hospitalizations and death in fully immunized individuals. There’s more papers out there but here’s one. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765

by thamer 6y ago

makomk 6y ago

As I understand it, it turns out that none of the vaccines are 100% effective in preventing hospitalization and death, it's just really hard to measure this accurately in the kind of studies used for vaccine approval because there aren't enough people in them, especially people at high risk. The actual figure from the various large-scale rollouts is closer to 80% I think?

alistairSH 6y ago
Yeah, the language I've seen is usually something like "...there were 0 deaths in the test group..." Which most people will read as "100% effective in preventing deaths" but technically there's no specific claim at preventing deaths - the "0 deaths" is effectively an anecdote.
- Spivak 6y ago
  I would assume that even a claim about being 100% effective has some asterisks like “has a strong enough immune system” where “strong enough” means “unless you’ve already been diagnosed with having a weak immune system you’re fine.”
thamer 6y ago
It's quite possible that some people will eventually contract COVID-19 and die from it, even several weeks after getting their last immunization shot (supposedly at a point when they're fully protected). It just didn't happen in any of the trials. If anyone wants to look at the raw phase 3 numbers: Pfizer numbers: 43,448 participants received injections (21,720 the vaccine and 21,728 the placebo); 8 cases of COVID-19 in the vaccinated group and 162 in the placebo group, 9 were severe (8 of those in the placebo group). Pfizer study: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=featured_home https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=fe... Moderna numbers: 30,420 participants, evenly split with 15,210 in each group, over 96% got both injections. There were 185 symptomatic cases in the placebo group and 11 in the vaccinated group. 30 participants had severe cases including one causing death: all were in the placebo group. Moderna study: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2035389 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2035389
- mapme 6y ago
  Israel has much more robust data than the trials for pfizer (monster study group size of 600k per group). They have seen hospitalizations and death in fully immunized individuals. There’s more papers out there but here’s one. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765