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Why? And where do your figures/estimate come from? …Here's a small selection of what actually happened in the pre-internet/computer era (it's all pretty remark

Why? And where do your figures/estimate come from? …Here's a small selection of what actually happened in the pre-internet/computer era (it's all pretty remarkable and we could do it again if we had to): • Humanity got through many tens of thousands of years of its existence and into the 1980s without the internet and (mostly without) modern computers and somehow not only managed without them but it thrived and multiplied. • Even before electrification and the international telegraph across the Atlantic, trade was alive and well between nations (for instance, trade in cotton from the Southern US to Manchester UK). • Moreover, in ancient times trade between nations was both effective and remarkably well organized (given that even the telephone was still 2000 years away). One only has to look at the trade routes of Ancient Greece and the Roman Empire to realize how sophisticated that arrangement was: https://vividmaps.com/trade-routes-of-roman-empire/ https://vividmaps.com/trade-routes-of-roman-empire/. Furthermore, there were many other trade routes throughout history, The Silk Road for instance. • At the beginning of WWII the US was almost completely unprepared for war. Between 1942 and 1945 the US embarked on an industrial ramp-up in production that has never been equalled. That increase was truly phenomenal: https://prospect.org/health/way-won-america-s-economic-breakthrough-world-war-ii/ https://prospect.org/health/way-won-america-s-economic-break.... All that occurred without either the internet or modern computers. • As US Secretary of War Henry Stimson said in 1940 "If you are going to try to go to war, or to prepare for war, in a capitalist country, you have got to let business make money out of the process or business won't work.". That actually happened and the results were not only remarkable but truly phenomenal. It's not the internet that drives the world but money! • There are a few notable exceptions to that rule (but nevertheless commerce was unknowingly and inextricably implicated), and that was the Government-run Manhattan Project and the development of the Atomic Bomb. War has always driven scientific development but what happened between 1942 and 1945 was truly phenomenal and still has never been equalled in both the speed of scientific development and its practical application. It is all the more remarkable that from its outset the Manhattan Project was planned, organized and brought to fruition in complete secrecy—and, of course, this secrecy also extended to all the scientific and engineering research. Not only was there no internet, but mandatory secrecy meant that discussing the project on the telephone was impossible—even speaking to anyone with the exception of security-cleared colleagues in one's own area of specialty was not only problematic but also a major breach of security. • Another exception was the phenomenal strategic planning and organization behind D-Day—the invasion of Normandy during WWII. This was the biggest and most complex invasion of its kind in all history, nothing like it has ever happened before or since. Again, this remarkable feat was accomplished behind an enormous cloak of secrecy. • It wasn't only the US that had a phenomenal increase in production in WWII, so did every country engaged in the war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_War_II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_Wor.... For example, in 1939 the world produced ≈38,000 aircraft per year, by 1945 that figure was not only phenomenal but had reached a staggering number in excess of 0.8 million aircraft per year! That's an increase of ≈2105%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_aircraft_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_aircraft_producti.... • After WWII the US post-war economy growth was also phenomenal: http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/outlines/history-1994/postwar-america/the-postwar-economy-1945-1960.php http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/outlines/history-1994/postwar-amer.... Other countries also had phenomenal economic growth after the War. • It wasn't only economic growth throughout most of history that managed without the internet or modern computers, science and mathematics did too. Essentially, all mainstream mathematics and mathematical theories up until the 1980s were done without the help of even electronic communications let alone the internet. Moreover, mainstream science from ancient times to Dalton's scientific method; to Enlightenment science, Lavoisier et all; to 19th Century science—thermodynamics: Clausius, JW Gibbs, Boltzmann; electrical theory: Faraday, Maxwell—Maxwell's equations; through to 20th Century science: Quantum Mechanics: Planck, Bohr, Einstein, Dirac, et al right through to QFT, QED and even the Standard Model of Particle Physics —still our most current model—all happened without the internet—that's right, every damn iota of it! • And lastly, culture: essentially all the great cultural canons, music, art and literature, were produced without the need of the internet or computers, or for that matter, even without other forms of modern electronic communications. No doubt, if the internet ceased tomorrow there would be widespread disruption and it would force everyone to adapt quickly (especially after it was realized those technologies weren't going to return—keep in mind that this would very likely be the scenario after a nuclear conflagration/war). In my opinion, the single biggest problem for post-internet, post-computers times would be re-educating the generation that has grown up with them ever present and has never known or experienced a world without them. (Moreover, the disappearance of computers and internet would likely be a very serious social problem (at least in the short term), the reason being that with their introduction it was the first time in history that humans have experienced truly addictive work tools and withdrawal would be difficult. It would be especially problematic for those who've grown up with them from birth.) Please note, I'm not suggesting for an instant that this scenario is desirable or that a pre-internet, pre-modern computers world would be sustainable into the distant future, so please don't accuse me of being a Luddite. After all, my bread and butter has always depended on technology—and I've always been a born technophile. My views here are based on the fact that I grew up before the internet so I've experienced both worldviews.

mikewarot 6y ago
We, the makers of the world, are very resourceful group. If we couldn't get the internet back up, that to me implies civilizational collapse, and a world without long distance radio, satellite, underseas cables from some unspecified cause that is the start of this thought experiment. Without internet, or any other instant long distance means of communications, we're back to pre-civil war technology with small pockets of embedded modernity. Heck, Lincoln used telegraph to manage the Civil War in the US. The most appropriate historical fiction to match the scenario is the 1632 series of books by Eric Flint, at least in terms of what the hurdles are to rebooting a technology base. Even a year without telecoms would have billions dead as governments would be effectively dissolved, along with the world trade system. 1/5 of humanity dead would be an amazing victory over adversity. > At the beginning of WWII the US was almost completely unprepared for war. Between 1942 and 1945 the US embarked on an industrial ramp-up in production that has never been equaled. Yes, that's because there were plans in place from the Army Industrial College, and their graduates including Dwight Eisenhower who had done surveys in advance to figure out the logistics of turning the manufacturing base around. For Example, there is a Vocational School in Chicago that taught how to work on airplane avionics for the Navy during the war... just happened to be funded by the Navy in 1938. We didn't turn things around in a year, that wasn't possible, but might be a nice myth, if it weren't so dangerous to believe. Please note, I agree with almost everything you say, and I too grew up before the internet, and have no desire to return to those days, they sucked! I don't share your optimism in the short order, long term I'm a bit more optimistic, if we don't nuke ourselves, or let any more gain of function research get out of hand
- hilbert42 6y ago
  I agree with you that if we couldn't get the internet back up then it would likely imply civilizational collapse, especially given that the internet was especially designed around rerouting protocols that should bypass major points of failure. As I understand it, 'survivability in the face of failure' was one of DARPA's principle design criteria for ARPANET/internet, if that didn't happen or couldn’t be sustained then things would be pretty terrible. Let me backtrack for a moment, the title of the original article is 'What Would You Do If The Internet Went Away?' As there is little of substance in the article to cover the many of the potential issues raised in the title, I based my comments (a) principally to address that title, which I did in the context of a Gedanken experiment where the title alone set the conditions/limits on my reply; and, (b) as I was also replying to mikewarot's post, my comments also had to address what he said within that context. The fact that mikewarot also threw in the matter of a world without computers complicated matters because the thought experiment would allow for a world where there were computers and no internet. In fact, my initial draft rely omitted computers; I only added them later to avoid being accused of avoiding his point. In essence, the thrust of my reply was only to consider a world without the internet, at no time was it my intention to omit any communications facility or service that was in existence up until immediately prior to the introduction of the internet. That's to say my premise was to assume that we would be returning to a world that was essentially identical to the one we had around the mid 1980s (i.e.: the remnants of the telegraph/telex service, facsimile, telephone, radio broadcasting, radio communications including HF/long distance shortwave, television, communications satellites and submarine cables were all still in existence). If I had not assumed this then I'd fully agree with you that my optimism would have been badly misplaced. The issue of Eric Flint's 1632 series and the rebooting of society from that level is a bridge too far for my rather limited brain to contemplate in any meaningful way. Nevertheless, I have given some contemplation to how far back in years that our present-day society with its knowledge of the internet would, in terms of technology, have to revert before the mid 1980s point before society would break down. I think that point is some 50 years earlier in the mid 1930s, that's the point where AM radio and AM radio broadcasting had reached maturity and where the supporting infrastructure was sufficiently developed to communicate with most of the world. I base this on the remarkable but horrible success that Goebbels and Nazis had in galvanizing the German population, which they did with little more than the cheap, simple-to-build Volksempfänger AM radio: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volksempf%C3%A4nger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volksempf%C3%A4nger. (For years, I've considered AM radio to be one of the most important and pivotal technologies of the 20th Century, it's simple, cheap and allows effective worldwide communications. It would be the first and most important of the electronics technologies that would be re-established after any civilizational collapse.)* "<…> there were plans in place from the Army Industrial College, and their graduates including Dwight Eisenhower who had done surveys in advance to figure out the logistics of turning the manufacturing base around. <…> For Example, there is a Vocational School in Chicago that taught how to work on airplane avionics for the Navy during the war." Right, but that turnaround would not have happened (or happened within sufficient time) had it not been for a small but brilliant and very influential group of experts such as Alfred Lee Loomis, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Lee_Loomis; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Lee_Loomis; Vannevar Bush, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vannevar_Bush https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vannevar_Bush and others. In my opinion, that photograph of Loomis, Bush, Lawrence and others is one of the most significant of the war as only a handful of other people had such an influential effect on the war as they did. "<…> Heck, Lincoln used telegraph to manage the Civil War in the US." You may be interested in this 1865 Civil War photograph that's on the Library of Congress (LOC) website titled 'Alexandria, Virginia. Soldiers' Rest' https://www.loc.gov/pictures/collection/civwar/item/2018672219/ https://www.loc.gov/pictures/collection/civwar/item/20186722.... At first, it looks completely unremarkable, and seemingly the only reason why it's on the LOC website is that it's a Civil War photograph. However, some years back when I was mucking about trying to find the ideal gamma curves to optimize the problems with the crushed grayscales caused by the fact that those old collodion emulsions were only sensitive to blue light (meaning reds turn out overly dark or black), I discovered by accident that there's more to this photograph than meets the eye. The photograph as it appears on the LOC website is somewhat over exposed and the sky is washed out (the fault is with the original not the scan—LOC scans are always excellent). When this over exposure is corrected for, you will see three telegraph wires seemingly appear out of nowhere, they completely span the width of the photograph, not only that but you can also see where one of the wires has been neatly joined midway. Discovering the telegraph wires in this image give it new meaning and importance (given the then newness of the telegraph and its importance in that War). I am unaware if anyone else has discovered† the fact. [To view the telegraph wires, from the link first select the high resolution TIF file, 89.6MB (in the lower resolution photos the wires are indistinct). To make the wires visible I'd suggest using Photoshop. Under 'Adjustments', select 'Shadow/Highlight' then tick 'Show More Options', now under 'Highlights' increase 'Amount' and decrease 'Total Width' until they appear.] "<…> and have no desire to return to those days, they sucked!'* Agree totally, nevertheless we actually managed to live though them successfully. ;-) ___ † Discovering seemingly hidden items in LOC's old Civil War photographs can be fun. I've found what I reckon is the oldest photograph in existence containing images of rat poo (1865) and I challenge anyone to find an earlier one. If anyone wants details of the photo's/LOC's reference number then I'll provide it and suggest where to look (as it's not easy to find).

mikewarot 6y ago

We, the makers of the world, are very resourceful group. If we couldn't get the internet back up, that to me implies civilizational collapse, and a world without long distance radio, satellite, underseas cables from some unspecified cause that is the start of this thought experiment. Without internet, or any other instant long distance means of communications, we're back to pre-civil war technology with small pockets of embedded modernity. Heck, Lincoln used telegraph to manage the Civil War in the US. The most appropriate historical fiction to match the scenario is the 1632 series of books by Eric Flint, at least in terms of what the hurdles are to rebooting a technology base. Even a year without telecoms would have billions dead as governments would be effectively dissolved, along with the world trade system. 1/5 of humanity dead would be an amazing victory over adversity. > At the beginning of WWII the US was almost completely unprepared for war. Between 1942 and 1945 the US embarked on an industrial ramp-up in production that has never been equaled. Yes, that's because there were plans in place from the Army Industrial College, and their graduates including Dwight Eisenhower who had done surveys in advance to figure out the logistics of turning the manufacturing base around. For Example, there is a Vocational School in Chicago that taught how to work on airplane avionics for the Navy during the war... just happened to be funded by the Navy in 1938. We didn't turn things around in a year, that wasn't possible, but might be a nice myth, if it weren't so dangerous to believe. Please note, I agree with almost everything you say, and I too grew up before the internet, and have no desire to return to those days, they sucked! I don't share your optimism in the short order, long term I'm a bit more optimistic, if we don't nuke ourselves, or let any more gain of function research get out of hand

hilbert42 6y ago
I agree with you that if we couldn't get the internet back up then it would likely imply civilizational collapse, especially given that the internet was especially designed around rerouting protocols that should bypass major points of failure. As I understand it, 'survivability in the face of failure' was one of DARPA's principle design criteria for ARPANET/internet, if that didn't happen or couldn’t be sustained then things would be pretty terrible. Let me backtrack for a moment, the title of the original article is 'What Would You Do If The Internet Went Away?' As there is little of substance in the article to cover the many of the potential issues raised in the title, I based my comments (a) principally to address that title, which I did in the context of a Gedanken experiment where the title alone set the conditions/limits on my reply; and, (b) as I was also replying to mikewarot's post, my comments also had to address what he said within that context. The fact that mikewarot also threw in the matter of a world without computers complicated matters because the thought experiment would allow for a world where there were computers and no internet. In fact, my initial draft rely omitted computers; I only added them later to avoid being accused of avoiding his point. In essence, the thrust of my reply was only to consider a world without the internet, at no time was it my intention to omit any communications facility or service that was in existence up until immediately prior to the introduction of the internet. That's to say my premise was to assume that we would be returning to a world that was essentially identical to the one we had around the mid 1980s (i.e.: the remnants of the telegraph/telex service, facsimile, telephone, radio broadcasting, radio communications including HF/long distance shortwave, television, communications satellites and submarine cables were all still in existence). If I had not assumed this then I'd fully agree with you that my optimism would have been badly misplaced. The issue of Eric Flint's 1632 series and the rebooting of society from that level is a bridge too far for my rather limited brain to contemplate in any meaningful way. Nevertheless, I have given some contemplation to how far back in years that our present-day society with its knowledge of the internet would, in terms of technology, have to revert before the mid 1980s point before society would break down. I think that point is some 50 years earlier in the mid 1930s, that's the point where AM radio and AM radio broadcasting had reached maturity and where the supporting infrastructure was sufficiently developed to communicate with most of the world. I base this on the remarkable but horrible success that Goebbels and Nazis had in galvanizing the German population, which they did with little more than the cheap, simple-to-build Volksempfänger AM radio: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volksempf%C3%A4nger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volksempf%C3%A4nger. (For years, I've considered AM radio to be one of the most important and pivotal technologies of the 20th Century, it's simple, cheap and allows effective worldwide communications. It would be the first and most important of the electronics technologies that would be re-established after any civilizational collapse.)* "<…> there were plans in place from the Army Industrial College, and their graduates including Dwight Eisenhower who had done surveys in advance to figure out the logistics of turning the manufacturing base around. <…> For Example, there is a Vocational School in Chicago that taught how to work on airplane avionics for the Navy during the war." Right, but that turnaround would not have happened (or happened within sufficient time) had it not been for a small but brilliant and very influential group of experts such as Alfred Lee Loomis, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Lee_Loomis; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Lee_Loomis; Vannevar Bush, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vannevar_Bush https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vannevar_Bush and others. In my opinion, that photograph of Loomis, Bush, Lawrence and others is one of the most significant of the war as only a handful of other people had such an influential effect on the war as they did. "<…> Heck, Lincoln used telegraph to manage the Civil War in the US." You may be interested in this 1865 Civil War photograph that's on the Library of Congress (LOC) website titled 'Alexandria, Virginia. Soldiers' Rest' https://www.loc.gov/pictures/collection/civwar/item/2018672219/ https://www.loc.gov/pictures/collection/civwar/item/20186722.... At first, it looks completely unremarkable, and seemingly the only reason why it's on the LOC website is that it's a Civil War photograph. However, some years back when I was mucking about trying to find the ideal gamma curves to optimize the problems with the crushed grayscales caused by the fact that those old collodion emulsions were only sensitive to blue light (meaning reds turn out overly dark or black), I discovered by accident that there's more to this photograph than meets the eye. The photograph as it appears on the LOC website is somewhat over exposed and the sky is washed out (the fault is with the original not the scan—LOC scans are always excellent). When this over exposure is corrected for, you will see three telegraph wires seemingly appear out of nowhere, they completely span the width of the photograph, not only that but you can also see where one of the wires has been neatly joined midway. Discovering the telegraph wires in this image give it new meaning and importance (given the then newness of the telegraph and its importance in that War). I am unaware if anyone else has discovered† the fact. [To view the telegraph wires, from the link first select the high resolution TIF file, 89.6MB (in the lower resolution photos the wires are indistinct). To make the wires visible I'd suggest using Photoshop. Under 'Adjustments', select 'Shadow/Highlight' then tick 'Show More Options', now under 'Highlights' increase 'Amount' and decrease 'Total Width' until they appear.] "<…> and have no desire to return to those days, they sucked!'* Agree totally, nevertheless we actually managed to live though them successfully. ;-) ___ † Discovering seemingly hidden items in LOC's old Civil War photographs can be fun. I've found what I reckon is the oldest photograph in existence containing images of rat poo (1865) and I challenge anyone to find an earlier one. If anyone wants details of the photo's/LOC's reference number then I'll provide it and suggest where to look (as it's not easy to find).