3 ms·
> existing chips for decades or maybe even centuries. Chips experience solid-state diffusion, so I'd expect the expected survival probability of chips (ignorin
by KMag 6y ago
> existing chips for decades or maybe even centuries.
Chips experience solid-state diffusion, so I'd expect the expected survival probability of chips (ignoring any infant mortality effects) to go something like feature_size / sqrt( time ). If this is true, then I'd guess modern process nodes would have very low survival rates out at 100 years. Though, it's been over 20 years since I had any solid state chemistry, and most of my experience with diffusion modeling is in financial models, so take my wild guess with a grain of salt.
- londons_explore 6y agoBut the failure rate in observed time for non-nand components is very very low. Take a 5 year old phone, and the chances of the main board being bad might be 10%... But the chances of the main CPU being bad is probably under 0.1%. The other 99% of failures are mostly water damage, physical damage, bad soldering, fatigue failure, bad nand, etc. Maybe they'll all fail at once, but I somehow doubt it. IC's from the 1970's are still going strong, also with a low failure rate.