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True, but where do you see demand dropping off? I would actually assume demand will go up even more, since the economy was slowed down due to the pandemic.

by carlmr 6y ago

foolmeonce 6y ago
I think the changes pushed people to invest in new devices, etc, for a per-user lifestyle, while going back to restaurants, meeting rooms, etc, there's an excess of second hand inventory.
- Shivetya 6y ago
  oh I bet many are going to find the opportunity provided by the equipment gives them a lot of flexibility with work but also to communicate with friends and family. Many had never considered using zoom, their ipads, and other means, to keep in touch. The visual aspect may finally lead to where people will desire phones calls are both audio and visual. maybe the video phone will become an actual reality instead of something most people only see on TV and in movies
bsder 6y ago
> True, but where do you see demand dropping off? Likely December. Right now, because everyone is fearful of shortages, they've overbought or are in the process of overbuying. At some point, everyone is going to realize that, in the US, carrying inventory has tax implications, and everybody is going to try to dump a bunch of inventory back into the system that they really didn't need and aren't prepared to pay taxes on. Which will be fine for a while--until the middlemen get back up to what they consider useful inventory levels and quit buying. And all the prices will crash.
- iopq 6y ago
  For TSMC there's very little risk This is because a newly competitive AMD takes up a ton of wafers. They can't make them fast enough, and in 2022 they are releasing a completely new platform with DDR 5 on 5nm, and presumably new GPU line. This should again clobber Intel 10nm products. Even if there's no chip shortage, the customers of TSMC are very healthy (AMD, Apple, other phone manufacturers).
- rcxdude 6y ago
  Who's keeping inventory? Certainly for consumer channels there's basically no inventory to be had.
  - bsder 6y ago
    End companies, themselves. Any inventory that shows up gets overbought immediately. Two companies I know have x10 the microcontrollers they need for the year because they overbought when they could. If they pushed those microcontrollers back right now, they'd make quite a nice profit. But they won't. Instead, those companies will hit the tax implications starting in December and then will try to push their overbought inventory. Of course, at that point everybody will be trying to push their inventory and the prices will crash.
rasz 6y ago
Crypto bans would free a large portion of GPU demand.
LatteLazy 6y ago
Honestly, I think it should already be dropping off. Everyone, their kids and their pets has updated their electronics this year. That made sense as work/school from home was a thing. Now they have new electronics, and no need for additional electronics. Plus pretty soon things will reopen, and people will have opportunities to spend money on beer and restaurants and events. Even if covid 2.0 launches this year, I already have a new ipad etc. I think there'll be very low sales for most electronics for a while.

True, but where do you see demand dropping off? I would actually assume demand will go up even more, since the economy was slowed down due to the pandemic.

by carlmr 6y ago

True, but where do you see demand dropping off? I would actually assume demand will go up even more, since the economy was slowed down due to the pandemic.

foolmeonce 6y ago

I think the changes pushed people to invest in new devices, etc, for a per-user lifestyle, while going back to restaurants, meeting rooms, etc, there's an excess of second hand inventory.

Shivetya 6y ago
oh I bet many are going to find the opportunity provided by the equipment gives them a lot of flexibility with work but also to communicate with friends and family. Many had never considered using zoom, their ipads, and other means, to keep in touch. The visual aspect may finally lead to where people will desire phones calls are both audio and visual. maybe the video phone will become an actual reality instead of something most people only see on TV and in movies

bsder 6y ago

> True, but where do you see demand dropping off? Likely December. Right now, because everyone is fearful of shortages, they've overbought or are in the process of overbuying. At some point, everyone is going to realize that, in the US, carrying inventory has tax implications, and everybody is going to try to dump a bunch of inventory back into the system that they really didn't need and aren't prepared to pay taxes on. Which will be fine for a while--until the middlemen get back up to what they consider useful inventory levels and quit buying. And all the prices will crash.

iopq 6y ago
For TSMC there's very little risk This is because a newly competitive AMD takes up a ton of wafers. They can't make them fast enough, and in 2022 they are releasing a completely new platform with DDR 5 on 5nm, and presumably new GPU line. This should again clobber Intel 10nm products. Even if there's no chip shortage, the customers of TSMC are very healthy (AMD, Apple, other phone manufacturers).
rcxdude 6y ago
Who's keeping inventory? Certainly for consumer channels there's basically no inventory to be had.
- bsder 6y ago
  End companies, themselves. Any inventory that shows up gets overbought immediately. Two companies I know have x10 the microcontrollers they need for the year because they overbought when they could. If they pushed those microcontrollers back right now, they'd make quite a nice profit. But they won't. Instead, those companies will hit the tax implications starting in December and then will try to push their overbought inventory. Of course, at that point everybody will be trying to push their inventory and the prices will crash.

rasz 6y ago

Crypto bans would free a large portion of GPU demand.

LatteLazy 6y ago

Honestly, I think it should already be dropping off. Everyone, their kids and their pets has updated their electronics this year. That made sense as work/school from home was a thing. Now they have new electronics, and no need for additional electronics. Plus pretty soon things will reopen, and people will have opportunities to spend money on beer and restaurants and events. Even if covid 2.0 launches this year, I already have a new ipad etc. I think there'll be very low sales for most electronics for a while.