3 ms·

Mutation rate for SARS-COV2 is about half of mutation rate of influenza viruses, so it still mutates pretty fast compared to DNA viruses or bacteria.

by jupp0r 6y ago

rootusrootus 6y ago
I can find only one source claiming it is half that of influenza. The consensus seems to be more like one quarter. And there is some nuance, because the way that influenza mutates is different, and gives it a bigger advantage in evading antibodies. The structure of the coronavirus does not share that property, which is why we haven't yet seen a mutation that can evade vaccination.
- lamontcg 6y ago
  One quarter per base pair, one half per whole genome. The same proofreading machinery which lowers its mutation rate, though, allows recombination when multiple infection happens. I would argue that gives this coronavirus a mutational advantage over influenza making up some of the difference in base pair mutation rate: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009226 https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j... The reason why we haven't seen a true escape mutation is more to do with the fact that you need mutations at up to 20 epitopes on the spike protein to collectively arise, and one mutation alone won't do it, which is likely to eventually be costly to the virus and it would prefer to maintain the same fitness levels and spread in the totally naive population (at the same time though the mutations in spike which come at a fitness advantage that have been seen are worrisome because it means the virus still has room to move on the spike protein without negatively impacting fitness). It won't encounter enough selection pressure to achieve escape mutations until you start to see >70% of the population vaxxed or recovered. Influenza itself can takes several years to mutate and come back which you can see by the waxing and waning of 2009 H1N1, which has not been epidemic every year, so we wouldn't have expected an escape mutation by now even on paper.
  - jupp0r 6y ago
    Thanks for the detailed explanation, this is why I love HN.

Mutation rate for SARS-COV2 is about half of mutation rate of influenza viruses, so it still mutates pretty fast compared to DNA viruses or bacteria.

by jupp0r 6y ago

Mutation rate for SARS-COV2 is about half of mutation rate of influenza viruses, so it still mutates pretty fast compared to DNA viruses or bacteria.

rootusrootus 6y ago

I can find only one source claiming it is half that of influenza. The consensus seems to be more like one quarter. And there is some nuance, because the way that influenza mutates is different, and gives it a bigger advantage in evading antibodies. The structure of the coronavirus does not share that property, which is why we haven't yet seen a mutation that can evade vaccination.

lamontcg 6y ago
One quarter per base pair, one half per whole genome. The same proofreading machinery which lowers its mutation rate, though, allows recombination when multiple infection happens. I would argue that gives this coronavirus a mutational advantage over influenza making up some of the difference in base pair mutation rate: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009226 https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j... The reason why we haven't seen a true escape mutation is more to do with the fact that you need mutations at up to 20 epitopes on the spike protein to collectively arise, and one mutation alone won't do it, which is likely to eventually be costly to the virus and it would prefer to maintain the same fitness levels and spread in the totally naive population (at the same time though the mutations in spike which come at a fitness advantage that have been seen are worrisome because it means the virus still has room to move on the spike protein without negatively impacting fitness). It won't encounter enough selection pressure to achieve escape mutations until you start to see >70% of the population vaxxed or recovered. Influenza itself can takes several years to mutate and come back which you can see by the waxing and waning of 2009 H1N1, which has not been epidemic every year, so we wouldn't have expected an escape mutation by now even on paper.
- jupp0r 6y ago
  Thanks for the detailed explanation, this is why I love HN.