3 ms·
TIPs I believe use the CPI, and so do other instruments like this. The CPI undercounts inflation by almost 1 to 1.5%. we've discussed this one many times: jus
by thorwasdfasdf 6y ago
TIPs I believe use the CPI, and so do other instruments like this. The CPI undercounts inflation by almost 1 to 1.5%. we've discussed this one many times: just look at bic mac index, housing prices, car prices. there are many buckets in the CPI and at least several of them don't fully count inflation, sometimes quite brazenly too: comparing beef prices to chicken prices instead of beef to beef, simply because beef has gone up faster than chicken.
the appeal of bitcoin is there's a fixed supply as opposed to fiat which can increase exponentially.
I never said reject equities. I want to invest in as many asset classes as possible, including equities, real estate and gold.
The macro picture for equities is looking a little less rosy than it did 30 or 50 years ago. Equities are supposed to follow earnings growths, which is basically just population growth + productivity per capita increases plus dividends. if you break the 3 of those down and compare them to the last 50 years, you'll quickly see, future fundamentals are less rosy:
- labor population growth has slowed to 0.5%, from 1.5%
- per capita productivity growth is at all time lows
- and dividends for s&p500 are now at 1.5%, down from 4.5%.
Whereas the fundamentals for past growth were (4.5+1.5+2=8% real), the future fundamentals now show: (1.5+0.5+1.5=3.5%).