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I think the major point is that Bitcoin seems to benefit disproportionately from inflation. It may be the case that it's the single best hedge against inflation

I think the major point is that Bitcoin seems to benefit disproportionately from inflation. It may be the case that it's the single best hedge against inflation. But yes, there are lot's of things that protect against inflation.

tome 6y ago
> Bitcoin seems to benefit disproportionately from inflation Does it? On what basis would one know that? Why should it benefit from inflation more than gold, say?
- rybosworld 6y ago
  My argument would be it's the only thing on that list of inflation hedges that has a fixed supply. Lot's of gold is mined each year. Houses are built. Stock is issued, etc. Bitcoin has a well-established upper limit.
  - tome 6y ago
    > [Bitcoin is] the only thing on that list of inflation hedges that has a fixed supply. Aha! That brings me to my next question. In what sense does bitcoin actually have a fixed supply? Sure, a loose coalition of people agree for it to have a fixed supply at the moment, but if enough of the miners, core developers, etc. agree they can change the rules arbitrarily, viz. hard forks. Why should we believe that bitcoin really has a fixed supply, just because everyone has roughly stuck to the rules so far?
    - rybosworld 6y ago
      That's mostly a matter of economic incentives. It's technically possible but it's similar to the idea of a rich person lighting a pile of money on fire. If a proposal to raise the cap is introduced, price would react negatively, hurting miners, and making it more (relatively) expensive to mine. It's unlikely there is any scenario where it is economically feasible to try to raise the supply cap.
      - notahacker 6y ago
        A [relative] lack of block rewards to earn hurts miners too...
      - tome 6y ago
        Can you point me to some more thorough analysis of your claim? I've heard such things before but I've never seen it modelled and worked through. Until I see such an analysis I can't help thinking the argument is "we've thought about it a bit and it seems like it will be OK".
    - ur-whale 6y ago
      Every single thing you said applies to the greenback. Therein lies your answer: if a large enough number of people place faith into something, it "takes".
- smeej 6y ago
  Nobody knows how much gold is in the earth, much less in not-so-distant asteroids. The supply of gold might, technically, be "fixed" in the sense that no more of it is being created, but more of it could be discovered at any time. Bitcoin's supply is mathematically demonstrably fixed. Nobody's ever going to discover a new vein of Bitcoin in the earth's crust, or on an asteroid.
  - caeril 6y ago
    We know to a pretty good approximation how much gold is in the earth, and where it is. That's not even a minor consideration for mining geologists and engineers anymore. The primary limitation as of now is ore quality, which directly dictates how much energy is required for smelting, and we have a good idea of the decline curve thereof. We know roughly when it will be economically profitable to extract the stuff from seawater, which isn't too far off. In the end, it's a question of energy. Very similar to proof-of-work tokens like BTC, in that regard.
    - smeej 6y ago
      We certainly think we know. But we've thought an awful lot of things as a human species that turned out not to be true. Gold is presumably scarce. Bitcoin is provably scarce.
      - splistud 6y ago
        You are wrong about gold, either learn or drop that, its not central to your argument. A lot of things are scarce. Some of those things are valued. Bitcoins may or may not be valued in the future, and if they are it is unknown at what price point they might be valued. Scarcity is only part of the equation.
        smeej 6y ago
        Alright. I tried to do this. I'm certainly open to learning. But it looks like I'm actually going to need citations from you because everything I'm finding so far confirms that we do NOT know how much gold exists in the earth, or where it might be found, or whether it will become economically feasible to extract it. All we know is that discoveries are slowing down.[0][1][2][3] I've tried to read a variety of sources, from a scientific journal to a metals dealer to a mainstream news outlet to an industry-focused site. By all means, though, if you have citations for your confident claims that you're willing to provide, I'll be happy to read them too. [0] Earthquakes are still forming new veins: https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1759 https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1759 [1] There may or may not be large undiscovered veins left, especially under the ocean and in Antarctica (and we don't know whether new technology will make them easier to discover and mine): https://www.providentmetals.com/knowledge-center/precious-metals-resources/global-gold-supply-predictions.html https://www.providentmetals.com/knowledge-center/precious-me... [2] New technologies are gaining adoption that could reveal veins that were undiscoverable before: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54230737 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54230737 [3] There's no reason to believe the discovery of large gold mines is nearing its end: https://www.mining.com/web/were-a-long-long-way-from-running-out-of-gold/ https://www.mining.com/web/were-a-long-long-way-from-running...
- firmnoodle 6y ago
  The argument is that Bitcoin not only has a provable total fixed supply & rate of future supply and that it has more utility than gold because it's easier to transfer and harder to fake.
  - ur-whale 6y ago
    > harder to fake Also harder to take.

tome 6y ago

> Bitcoin seems to benefit disproportionately from inflation Does it? On what basis would one know that? Why should it benefit from inflation more than gold, say?

rybosworld 6y ago
My argument would be it's the only thing on that list of inflation hedges that has a fixed supply. Lot's of gold is mined each year. Houses are built. Stock is issued, etc. Bitcoin has a well-established upper limit.
- tome 6y ago
  > [Bitcoin is] the only thing on that list of inflation hedges that has a fixed supply. Aha! That brings me to my next question. In what sense does bitcoin actually have a fixed supply? Sure, a loose coalition of people agree for it to have a fixed supply at the moment, but if enough of the miners, core developers, etc. agree they can change the rules arbitrarily, viz. hard forks. Why should we believe that bitcoin really has a fixed supply, just because everyone has roughly stuck to the rules so far?
  - rybosworld 6y ago
    That's mostly a matter of economic incentives. It's technically possible but it's similar to the idea of a rich person lighting a pile of money on fire. If a proposal to raise the cap is introduced, price would react negatively, hurting miners, and making it more (relatively) expensive to mine. It's unlikely there is any scenario where it is economically feasible to try to raise the supply cap.
    - notahacker 6y ago
      A [relative] lack of block rewards to earn hurts miners too...
    - tome 6y ago
      Can you point me to some more thorough analysis of your claim? I've heard such things before but I've never seen it modelled and worked through. Until I see such an analysis I can't help thinking the argument is "we've thought about it a bit and it seems like it will be OK".
  - ur-whale 6y ago
    Every single thing you said applies to the greenback. Therein lies your answer: if a large enough number of people place faith into something, it "takes".
smeej 6y ago
Nobody knows how much gold is in the earth, much less in not-so-distant asteroids. The supply of gold might, technically, be "fixed" in the sense that no more of it is being created, but more of it could be discovered at any time. Bitcoin's supply is mathematically demonstrably fixed. Nobody's ever going to discover a new vein of Bitcoin in the earth's crust, or on an asteroid.
- caeril 6y ago
  We know to a pretty good approximation how much gold is in the earth, and where it is. That's not even a minor consideration for mining geologists and engineers anymore. The primary limitation as of now is ore quality, which directly dictates how much energy is required for smelting, and we have a good idea of the decline curve thereof. We know roughly when it will be economically profitable to extract the stuff from seawater, which isn't too far off. In the end, it's a question of energy. Very similar to proof-of-work tokens like BTC, in that regard.
  - smeej 6y ago
    We certainly think we know. But we've thought an awful lot of things as a human species that turned out not to be true. Gold is presumably scarce. Bitcoin is provably scarce.
    - splistud 6y ago
      You are wrong about gold, either learn or drop that, its not central to your argument. A lot of things are scarce. Some of those things are valued. Bitcoins may or may not be valued in the future, and if they are it is unknown at what price point they might be valued. Scarcity is only part of the equation.
      - smeej 6y ago
        Alright. I tried to do this. I'm certainly open to learning. But it looks like I'm actually going to need citations from you because everything I'm finding so far confirms that we do NOT know how much gold exists in the earth, or where it might be found, or whether it will become economically feasible to extract it. All we know is that discoveries are slowing down.[0][1][2][3] I've tried to read a variety of sources, from a scientific journal to a metals dealer to a mainstream news outlet to an industry-focused site. By all means, though, if you have citations for your confident claims that you're willing to provide, I'll be happy to read them too. [0] Earthquakes are still forming new veins: https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1759 https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1759 [1] There may or may not be large undiscovered veins left, especially under the ocean and in Antarctica (and we don't know whether new technology will make them easier to discover and mine): https://www.providentmetals.com/knowledge-center/precious-metals-resources/global-gold-supply-predictions.html https://www.providentmetals.com/knowledge-center/precious-me... [2] New technologies are gaining adoption that could reveal veins that were undiscoverable before: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54230737 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54230737 [3] There's no reason to believe the discovery of large gold mines is nearing its end: https://www.mining.com/web/were-a-long-long-way-from-running-out-of-gold/ https://www.mining.com/web/were-a-long-long-way-from-running...
firmnoodle 6y ago
The argument is that Bitcoin not only has a provable total fixed supply & rate of future supply and that it has more utility than gold because it's easier to transfer and harder to fake.
- ur-whale 6y ago
  > harder to fake Also harder to take.