I think a better heuristic when asking developers for an estimate to ask for a lower bound and a black swan upper bound. Most developers have a better sense for

I think a better heuristic when asking developers for an estimate to ask for a lower bound and a black swan upper bound. Most developers have a better sense for this than an exact time or story point estimate. Alas no product tools allow you to do this today. As a dev, I'm so much more confident of saying .. umm this bug will take at least a couple hours to investigate/fix but could balloon up to 2 days to re-factor and fix depending on what I find.