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With regards to the car crash probability: those are the odds that if something were to kill you that it would be a car crash, not the odds of actually dying in
by jjk166 6y ago
With regards to the car crash probability: those are the odds that if something were to kill you that it would be a car crash, not the odds of actually dying in a car crash. In reality the odds of any specific 30 year old male in the US dying in a car crash over the course of a year is 0.02% (I don't have data for driving fatalities for china, but I presume they are not substantially higher). This is about 50 times less likely than a 30 year old who has tested positive for covid dying from covid, or equivalently getting covid at 30 raises your risk of death as much as a second lifetime worth of driving.
- beagle3 6y agoNo, the IFR for a 30 year old is approximately 0.02%, remarkably similar to dying in a car crash according to recent CDC update: https://www.nbc26.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-covid-19-fatality-rate-including-asymptomatic-cases https://www.nbc26.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-covid-1... The 0.02% number covers 20-49; It is lopsided, so it's likely that 30 is much less and 49 is much more ... ; So, it's not 1/100 or 1/1000 as I claimed, likely 1/10. Your numbers are off by a factor of at least 50.