3 ms·

Which is weird in itself - The probability of death for a healthy 30-something year old is lower than their probability to die in a car crash (1/10 to 1/100 of

Which is weird in itself - The probability of death for a healthy 30-something year old is lower than their probability to die in a car crash (1/10 to 1/100 of all cause mortality for that age group). It’s a game of probability, of course, but it turns out that whistle blowers often suffer from “coincidences” and “low probability events”, and whenever that happens, I try to take note.

Retric 6y ago
I think doctors at outbreaks like this are at much higher risk of death than the average person due to stress and a much higher viral load than normal. Medical professionals only start to use protective gear after they realized how dangerous a disease is. Before that their spending significant time around highly infectious people in inclosed spaces while under extreme stress. Wuhan lost a significant number of medical professionals presumably due to this.
ad404b8a372f2b9 6y ago
I assume that's the average death rate for healthy 30 year olds over the whole pandemic, I don't think it applies to how things were in the beginning with overrun hospitals and overworked health professionals. If you look at the SARS epidemic you see plenty of cases like these.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
  Not only that, but no known effective medications or treatments. They were flying totally blind at the beginning.
herendin2 6y ago
It is unlikely, but unlikely events happen. It does not have to be a conspiracy. Think about this: If he hadn't died, he probably would have received much less attention. There were a few other eloquent Chinese whistle-blowers from the early days, Jan-Feb 2020, who have been silenced by government threats or by being detained, who do not have the public recognition of Dr Li - probably because they didn't die.
jjk166 6y ago
With regards to the car crash probability: those are the odds that if something were to kill you that it would be a car crash, not the odds of actually dying in a car crash. In reality the odds of any specific 30 year old male in the US dying in a car crash over the course of a year is 0.02% (I don't have data for driving fatalities for china, but I presume they are not substantially higher). This is about 50 times less likely than a 30 year old who has tested positive for covid dying from covid, or equivalently getting covid at 30 raises your risk of death as much as a second lifetime worth of driving.
- beagle3 6y ago
  No, the IFR for a 30 year old is approximately 0.02%, remarkably similar to dying in a car crash according to recent CDC update: https://www.nbc26.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-covid-19-fatality-rate-including-asymptomatic-cases https://www.nbc26.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-covid-1... The 0.02% number covers 20-49; It is lopsided, so it's likely that 30 is much less and 49 is much more ... ; So, it's not 1/100 or 1/1000 as I claimed, likely 1/10. Your numbers are off by a factor of at least 50.

Retric 6y ago

I think doctors at outbreaks like this are at much higher risk of death than the average person due to stress and a much higher viral load than normal. Medical professionals only start to use protective gear after they realized how dangerous a disease is. Before that their spending significant time around highly infectious people in inclosed spaces while under extreme stress. Wuhan lost a significant number of medical professionals presumably due to this.

ad404b8a372f2b9 6y ago

I assume that's the average death rate for healthy 30 year olds over the whole pandemic, I don't think it applies to how things were in the beginning with overrun hospitals and overworked health professionals. If you look at the SARS epidemic you see plenty of cases like these.

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
Not only that, but no known effective medications or treatments. They were flying totally blind at the beginning.

herendin2 6y ago

It is unlikely, but unlikely events happen. It does not have to be a conspiracy. Think about this: If he hadn't died, he probably would have received much less attention. There were a few other eloquent Chinese whistle-blowers from the early days, Jan-Feb 2020, who have been silenced by government threats or by being detained, who do not have the public recognition of Dr Li - probably because they didn't die.

jjk166 6y ago

With regards to the car crash probability: those are the odds that if something were to kill you that it would be a car crash, not the odds of actually dying in a car crash. In reality the odds of any specific 30 year old male in the US dying in a car crash over the course of a year is 0.02% (I don't have data for driving fatalities for china, but I presume they are not substantially higher). This is about 50 times less likely than a 30 year old who has tested positive for covid dying from covid, or equivalently getting covid at 30 raises your risk of death as much as a second lifetime worth of driving.

beagle3 6y ago
No, the IFR for a 30 year old is approximately 0.02%, remarkably similar to dying in a car crash according to recent CDC update: https://www.nbc26.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-covid-19-fatality-rate-including-asymptomatic-cases https://www.nbc26.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-covid-1... The 0.02% number covers 20-49; It is lopsided, so it's likely that 30 is much less and 49 is much more ... ; So, it's not 1/100 or 1/1000 as I claimed, likely 1/10. Your numbers are off by a factor of at least 50.