3 ms·

The 70% is my issue with the article as well. That seems to indicate a 30% chance for the pandemic that actually happened, but that seems awfully high.

• Retric 6y ago
  30% chance for a pandemic not necessarily this pandemic. Assuming they are correct the outbreak could have easily been noticed in a different city for example.
• dls2016 6y ago
  Aren't there other outcomes, like the relatively contained SARS/MERS outbreaks of the past?