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This is neat! This might be a dumb question, but how far out are really accurate predictions of satellite locations good for without measurement? Like, if I ke
by CobrastanJorji 6y ago
This is neat!
This might be a dumb question, but how far out are really accurate predictions of satellite locations good for without measurement? Like, if I kept scrolling forwards in time, how long would it take before the prediction of the satellite's location was off by an arcsecond (I'm guessing days)? Or a full degree (I'm guessing many years)?
- thelean12 6y agoI'm not sure what the answer is, but something to keep in mind is that most are reboosted every once in a while. Once this happens, it should be completely off. ISS elevation chart where you can clearly see when they boosted up: https://www.heavens-above.com/IssHeight.aspx https://www.heavens-above.com/IssHeight.aspx
- Rebelgecko 6y agoIt depends on a ton of factors. In general there's more uncertainty for lower satellites, especially ones that straddle the thermopause. The error isn't necessarily constant, it depends on hard to predict events like space weather. For something in LEO, an arcsecond of error is only a few meters. If you're plugging data into a standard orbital model like SDP4, a few meters is within the typical error margin basically as soon as the TLEs are published. A full degree of error would take a while. For what it's worth, NORAD publishes new TLEs for things in LEO pretty regularly, sometimes multiple times a day. For higher up objects it can be more than a week before the refresh the data.